USD index

Thank you Martin. I was walking around with a fallacy in my head and didn't know it. And trading at the same time!

 

NP

 

When the Fed in the spring announced the "taper", the dollar has been selling off, especially against the Euro. The move accelerated at that point. So on the face of it, taper is dollar bearish. Again, am I missing something?

 

Or should I say, the anticipation of "taper" has been dollar bearish, until recently.

 

Usually I try to not pay to take the fundamentals too seriously. But here you have a historic event. I keep thinking it's got to move the markets more than just a little. In the meantime I'll try to stick to what I'm good at. Which is fear and greed.

 

Long USD against the usual suspects

 

I'm a technical trader, but I don't want to trade against the fundamentals either. The stock market is a better example, where right in the middle of a bull market you'll have all kinds of voices saying the market is due to correct, is going to correct, Armageddon is coming, whatever.

 

Pound weakening. Bought in Aussie, switched to Nzd short. It's weaker.

 

Lots of other things happening at the same time... Moreover, the Fed's balance sheet actions were well-telegraphed before the spring.

 

I notice that the mortgage market has cooled off a lot.