Didnt follow up as didnt think anybody was interested. I'll post a chart in a bit with some more expectations and the euro showed this week the importance of having an expectation.. Anyways Yes sold the tl break like I said and it did go on to tank.. I covered 1 position at next structure and stopped out break even with other. I agree it's certainly aiming for a number should get exhaustive move soon chart coming ..
When Euro announced the lastest interest rate, the expected mean price of EURUSD for next 3 month is 1.070 and next 6 month is 1.074. Thus, the current price is above the mean price and will expect to depreciate. But do not short it now. Short it when you detect the trend reversal, that is when there is excess speculation to form resistance to prevent the euro from appreciating more.
When BOJ left its interest rate unchanged yesterday, the expected mean price of USDJPY for next 3 month is 113.35 and it is currently trading at 112.81. So it is undervalued. But again, wait until your volatility measure indicates that there is trend reversal. Well, I've learned this through hard lesson as you guys know
Pound is undervalued and expected to appreciate to 1.2585 Euro is undervalued and is expected to appreciate to 1.0845 Aud dollar is done (it's at mean price) Kiwi is overvalued and is expected to depreciate to 0.7208 Yen is overvalued and expected to depreciate to 112.29 This analysis is for long term trading
Spot on, exhaustion still hasn't come which is expected for the Eurusd as this up move is still correctional rather than trend until that happens it's not a sell(4hr) there was some great daytrading opps last week though on both sides....
Yes well the only problem I have with the USDJPY being a long term buy is that this will be the vehicle for many traders if Trump opens his mouth for devaluing the dollar as that alone could easily cause a 10% drop.
Pound, yen, aussie and kiwi are at their intrinsic value. So unless they deviate substantially from their current price, I will wait. Only euro is undervalued. I think their intrinsic value is around 1.0773 and the current price will rise from today again after the pullback yesterday. I think yesterday's low will not break. Happy easters, pip and swim