The only thing I can think of is they are already short somewhere somehow. There is a large short in Italian bonds for instance. Greece, Spain, Portugal perhaps. Maybe they are way ahead already on those positions, since a lot of them have fallen. It's just a guess.
I get it now...EURO futures contract for March 2017 is expected to be around 1.0727 so commercial traders anticipate it to appreciate higher around January and February.
What they anticipate is based what they see now on markets. IF something changes tomorrow they will adjust their futures so prices will react as well.
Pip run trading this? I'm short euro, aud, Jpy. Euro I could only get off a little as it popped above 105.60. Aud short from .7418. USD/Jpy from 113.24. Hard to get good fills.
Dumped USD/JPY. It'll probably go up but during Brexit there was a flight to quality to the yen as well as USD.
Staying short euro as long as I can. Markets hate surprises. I was reading some of the press this afternoon and it was just like before Brexit and Trump. Lots of denial still. It was pretty clear to me that the press wanted a yes vote.
Prime minister resigns after definitive NO vote. Basically, the people of Italy have given ECB the middle finger, we don't want changes. That may give way to early election and potentially an Itexit.