Market seems to be discounting that possibility. Doesn't mean he will win, it's just that it looked like he had no chance a month ago. Also, I'm beginning to suspect that the bond market may be the underlying cause. But there may be no correlation. Also , I would add that the Chinese economy seems to be strengthening, and we seem to be slightly weaker ala housing and autos for instance. Maybe we are weaker than the rest of the world for a change. Anyway, don't fight the tape. I do it anyway and wonder why TF I just did that. Like Nzd last night. And I was bullish going in and had been long. I just started thinking that weakness in equities would lead to a flight out of the risky currencies. Not so. It was all dollar weakness.
All of my gains last night came from riding USD/Jpy hard down. I was long Swiss too but gave it back in the chop after 5am est. I sold yen too soon, but that's trading.
Gotta get better at posting beforehand. Helps keep me disciplined. Actually I was trying to sit on my hands but when yen broke OR I had to take it.
Out of all my currency longs except a tiny long aud. Getting a little frothy, and they will probably run further, but I'm up really really good on the week and I don't want to give much back. The same people who were long dollars late last week are the same ones who are going to start chasing this move I believe. Not saying it's over, just a little extended. I've seen the prettiest looking patterns get trampled on when some big OTF comes in and steps all over my expected move.
Haha that's funny. Just checked Australia after writing previous paragraph. It just dropped 35 points, taking me out. Case in point. Luckily i had raised the stop a bit when it crossed .7670.
Back on the gas. Long euro aud Cad. Leaving Jpy alone for now. Aud appears to have broken out above .7680 for now. Euro 111.20 I'm long from .10. Cad had a long, long consolidation. Short USD/ Cad from 1.3386.
Yes. Taking heat now. Still I don't think the panic is done. Just a pause. GBP continuing to strengthen against a slightly stronger USD.