Wow, I think we might agree on something. Haha. Aussie has looked stronger, btw. Probably all the lesser currencies will rally first. Saw some news about purchase of Us grains, it seems theres stuff moving behind the scenes.
Euro has broken a large triangle on the, say, 4 hr chart. Then retraced a bit. So you have a pretty clear A-B setup. Backdrop is the Aussie very weak, and problems in the bond market, As well as the usual trade problems and a few missiles being launched here and there. Seems a pretty bullish backdrop for Usd.
Watching gold it has a big head and shoulder on the daily and looks like its hit resistance at 1520 but I dont think I'd want to trade it short here despite Usd strength.
Oil cant keep a bid despite obvious security threat, usdjpy sold off hard, not sure what's holding equities up at this point. Sp down only slightly at this point.
Risk off isnt working, when all signs point one way then it stalls out it's often a setup for a move in the opposite direction.
Then again the markets are going to wake up to bad news, so it may be better to stand aside till things settle.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-may-set-alarm-bells-to-buy?srnd=premium-asia U.S. Dollar Nears a Critical Level That May Trigger a Buying Spree By John Ainger February 20, 2020, 6:38 PM GMT+8 Gauge nears 100 level after rising to highest since 2017 Greenback proves main currency haven on coronavirus fears The dollar is heading toward a key psychological threshold that could supercharge its ongoing rally. The U.S. Dollar Index, a widely-watched measure of the currency versus its peers, is close to breaching 100 for the first time since 2017, as the currency proves a haven of choice for investors confronting risks from the spread of the coronavirus. “I would say the 100 level is a big deal,” said Neil Jones, head of foreign-exchange sales to financial institutions at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “A number of buy signals will kick into play, it will set the alarm bells off.” The greenback has easily outperformed all of its major peers this year, confounding expectations that it would weaken following the U.S.-China trade deal. The coronavirus has boosted fears of a global economic slowdown, with South Korea reporting its first fatality and Japan confirming two deaths from a quarantined cruise ship. Other haven assets also rallied Thursday, including U.S. Treasuries and the Swiss franc, with gold prices touching the highest since 2013. The euro and the yen, forming the bulk of the dollar index gauge, have both slid more than 3% this year.
When stock investors will decide to cash in we should see substantial sell-off in dollar. It is actually happening and I think will intensify next week cuz coronavirus bites hard.