Sometimes I just think, "Well, maybe I am the crowd (everyone is saying not to be a part of)". And I'm ok with that. Haha. Everyone thinks the crowd is over there somewhere. Maybe it's here, closer than you think.
Speaking of thinking we know something, the market seems to be operating counter trend, more like buy weakness sell strength. Except i have a hard time establishing where it's going to bounce from. Anyway I think I can at least say it's not trending on the longer TFs. Think trading range till proven otherwise.
It just seems like a market where a lot of the volume has left, but still searching for value. That means spikes, which is what we have now.
I notice that Great Britain had some poor economic news today. Seems to me the numbers were pretty far off forecast. Everyone is watching the Euro this week because of ECB, I'm looking at the bigger picture like Italy's notes blowing out in yield last week. It's not full blown panic yet. In a separate but related area, there was an article on cnbc yesterday about how the Fed has to be careful about tightening too much, because the money market is already showing signs of strain. I think the article suggested that they were a little surprised how quickly liquidity dried up. More straws in the wind.
Crowd is wrong not because it took the wrong direction but because of they are too late. They make profits for those who wake up earlier, and spotted the trend (or reversal) when the crowd used outdated information to make decisions. It's all about getting meaningful market information before majority became aware it really matters
I don't like these tightly wound markets. Usually you get range expansion, a move in both directions before everything settles out.