Any predictions for 6 months, 1 year, and 18 months? I guess we could bump a year from now and see who was right.
Anyone know why USD would strenghten today when both the increase in Non-farm payrolls and an increase in wages are both inflationary.
First, it's EUR/USD. Second, any increase in inflationary risk means an increase in rates which is dollar positive. The Fed show no signs of stopping in their hiking, as the ECB show no signs of hiking.
Principally because: 1. Interest rate differential between US and EUR keeps increasing, and is likely to increase more. 2. Intermediate downtrend since EUR 1.30 or so with really strong support in the 1.19 range just taken out today. 3. Can't be a dollar bear all your life! 4. EUR/JPY Cross keeps bumping up against 140 and USD/JPY has moved like a moonshot in the last few days after a protracted range. Don't worry - long term fundamentals haven't changed. Just look at it as an opportunity to square up, take profit, and buy back in cheaper.