That's why I'm personally shorting GBPCAD instead - it's not in strange territory, but has around 800-1000 pips to go before it gets to last year's support level. It's inching down slowly - because GBPUSD is creeping back towards the 2.01 resistance level, offsetting the USDCAD freefall - but IMHO more reliably. When USDCAD starts recovering, it will be time for GBPUSD to start climbing down again (I think Blair's resignation, with it the change of Chancellors and political uncertainty in general will more than offset the small difference (.25%) in interest rates. The market didn't even notice the last British rate hike on May 10 - the same day Blair announced his resignation date. In the meantime I've taken a timeout from GBPCAD and put my chips on another big USDJPY unwind. I shorted at 121.94, predict 117 in a few weeks. May long USDCAD in July sometime, if (as I think) Canadian economic data weaken because of the strong loonie and as our biggest customer heads into recession. It will be a lousy summer for the Canadian tourist industry, that's for sure (high gas prices on top of everything). Probably not great for resources or manufacturing, either. So for me, it's time, not price, that's the main factor. Wait till the fundamentals are right and a decent uptrend is established.
I'm looking for loonie to retest the 10560 - 10540 area to go long. I see it bouncing back to 10930 - 11050 area, although I wouldn't be suprised if it stop hunts in the 10400's area. There's heavy support here imo.
I can't see USDCAD bouncing back until the economic effects of the high loonie start showing and oil backs off from the mid-60s. However we may have bottomed out. I suspect you will be able to make a lot of money all summer by going long at 550 and then shortish at 650. Personally, I'm enjoying myself over at GBPCAD, which I shorted at 2.1510 and is now around 2.0850. I expect it to crawl down another 500 pips at least. EURCAD might be even better, though. I'm also playing the Yen carry trade yo-yo, shorting when it goes over 122 and buying back 50 pips down, rinse and repeat. I think going with the carry trade at these dizzy heights is mad. We're weeks overdue for the next big unwind.
I am surprised that no one is going long yet...usually I have couple of gurus on these boards who say get in get in!!!! But yeah news first....then it will go higher..
Crazy`action today... what's the word in Canada about the dollar. I am in shock that the pair has fallen this low again. We were on the heels of recovery.
Yeah, and just after I'd finally gone long at 1.0650. The gurus as usual will be able to explain it all after the fact - predicting the past is always fun and profitable. Some data on producer and resource prices, both of which fell, but PPI still running at 3.8% y/y & so everyone expects Dodge to go up a quarter point on the 10th. Lots of news due on Friday - housing starts, trade balance, unemployment - maybe the market is anticipating strong results. A bad couple of days for me. I was playing the USDJPY unwind and the USDCAD recovery, both of which went into reverse simultaneously. Dang.
Now that was amzing in dollar\cad. From 1.0525 to 1.0470 in a matter of seconds just a few minutes ago.
Apparently it was a fixing related to M+A. But who really knows? As usual, silly is in season with the Loonie.