Usd/cad

I keep reading about M&A activity...but that can't be it. Good synopsis. I am keeping my longs all the way to 1.09

 

Perhaps it's setting up for a big short squeeze soon here since the fundamentals , like you mentioned, all point to CDN dollar weakness.

 

Seasonal Depression is setting in early?

 

Oil flows at the end of the month, and yes, they keep shouting M+A activity. Personally, I think the analysts don't know their ass from a hole in the ground, and so point out whatever they "hear" as the reasoning. But someone's playing in this, making a bet long term.

 

amen about the analysts. The whole swoon since 26 July is supposed to have started with the beige book, which was based on data that was 2 weeks old, shouldn't have surprised anyone, and just confirmed that the US economy was slowing down. And that Bernanke WASN'T GOING To RAISE RATES. Wow. According to the Bank of Canada model a quarter-point rate change should result in a 30-pip change in USDCAD, and that would be a change in relative rates, and the Bank of Canada didn't raise rates either. So the fact that there WASN'T GOING TO BE A RATE CHANGE should have made zip difference.

Then there are a million idiots out there (I have read a book by one of them, who claims to be an economics graduate) who think that "strong economy=strong dollar". So if the economic data has been weak, naturally the dollar is going to drop. The genius who wrote that book spends a whole chapter on "Why the US Dollar is so Strong" - and he's writing in 2005, when it's been tanking for 3 years and will go on tanking for another one. Somehow he didn't notice that USDCAD peaked in Feb 2002, just when we were coming off the last recession.

So my guess, it's the collective geniuses like that who have been dumping the dollar. Never mind, in their stupidity lies opportunity. I'm personally loading up.

 

Closed the .1065 at .1165 for 100 points. Patience, as usual, is rewarded in this pair.

 

Good job.

Usd/cad is actually acting sane today.

 

Of all the pairs, that pair is probably the most ridiculous behaving one. But I've learned long ago that you just gotta sit it out. No matter how insane the behavior, it will occasionally come back to reality - if only for a little while.

 

I would hate to be short from the recent lows though -- I don't know if patience would save a trade from there.

 

Shorting at multi decade lows is just stupid. Sorry if that offends anyone. But the risk-reward ratio is just pointless there.