USd/Cad and Cad/Jpy have been my little secrect for a long time. Inflation is expected to soar above 4% in Canada due to the BoC pausing for about a year in an attempt to cool off a strong dollar. Looks like the dollar continued to soar anyway and inflation is starting to get ugly. I believe the BoC raised rates recently for the first time in 11 months. At the same time the fed reserve was rasing rates. The BoC is starting to realize that it cannot cool the dollar thanks to oil, so it must now play catch-up with its U.S. counterpart.
Well, here it is, Saturday morning... having a "nice weekend," alright.... *ahem* So CAD's been the sleeping dog, eh? I worked out trading #s on USD/CAD and couldn't sanction a trade, or at least owning CAD against the USD. So I opened the USD/CAD long, selling the CAD as Ivan is doing. That's worked out fine. This other pair CAD/JPY, though, well, we'll just have to wait and see if The Kin's scenario comes to pass. It's had a practical vertical climb from 83.12 to 97.91, almost 1500-points one way. Says a lot. The yen is still a larger economic player than Canada, and once (if) Japan finally shakes off their lethargy and/or their financial mechanics or their eco #s change somehow, to where they actually start making the yen and Japan-based financial instruments attractive to global investors, then watch out because the yen will come roaring back, possibly crushing both CAD and USD. At least for a while. As it stands, Japan is the number 3 economy after the US and Europe, isn't that right? So it won't take much for the world to start having confidence in the yen and Japan-backed money products: That would mean a climbing yen. The Kin, were you long CAD against the yen since April, i.e., did you put the full 1500-pt trend in your pocket? Where do you see CAD/JPY going now, up further?
It's not that, LA, it's that posters are delusional about my trading practices. Because I don't enter a mechanical "stop loss" order in with every trade I open they presume I don't use a stop loss. That's their presumption, but they have no idea how I trade so they are only guessing what I do and don't do. fx
That EUR/USD short trade I ran from the 1.2100s to 1.3665 I was in because I wanted to be in it, not because I was "stuck." As I have said numerous times, I have "re-tooled" my entire trading system since then. The system I was trading then (the "eco/poli" system) is obsolete, though I still use parts of it. It worked killer for months prior to the vertical climb. Now, should the same move occur I would 1) gain the entire move long, and 2) still would short all the way up, but only, manage my positions differently so as to take advantage of the tumble back to the 1.1800s from 1.3665. I'm not a dumb trader, just a lucky one. LuckyOne <-- my next ID.
Are you using a 'mental' stop? Sometimes using a mental stop seems to be the best way to go since a lot of FX brokers like to clean out all the stops before the real trend starts.
Look at this Ivan <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=856833> [/B][/QUOTE]
Unless my eyes are playing a trick on me, what I see on your chart is a descending, non-linear channel showing a 700-pip CAD rally within 5 days. What does this chart mean?
no, no, those line are actually straight lines. you just have to stare at it for 10 minutes. - it's an optical illusion. you'll also start seeing a purple hue around it. If you don't see the hue, increase it to 30-minutes. <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=856833>
Please explain. Is that a 700 pip drop on the USD/CAD with a range of 200 pips a day during the next week?