Entry prices not seen overnight (Asia/Europe Tuesday), but met yesterday morning USA, and entered both CAD near-month longs at that time at avg-in .8560. Below water all of rest of yesterday, max drawdown 28 ticks from avg in, or about 40 percent distance to stop. Ground recovered last night, above water now.
Bought one more near month CAD future this morning at .8602, upping position to 3 from 2. Original stop and target the same for first two (no trailing stop), with today's addition to be stopped today only at .8530 (just under week low). Profit target for addition is anywhere north of .8760. I'll hold awhile to get there, true also of original trade, which targets .8725. CAD relative strength this week likely attributable to gold and crude bids. That's what the commentators say -- you know, the guys (and gals) who spend their time looking in the rear view mirror.
This trade (today's addition to long position) now above water, but not without pucker. CAD promptly fell 40 ticks from my entry, to just above the avg-in of my initial longs (at .8560), or more than half the distance to my day-only stop. Still, total drawdown to date on all three longs (28 x two plus 40 x one) is less than current unrealized profit. This puppy is a keeper.
Stop for Friday's added near month CAD long is .8550, which is slightly, purposely under the avg-in entry of original two longs. Whipsaw low on Friday dove at, but did not reach, the original avg in.
Canadian election coming up Jan 23 ... look for election timing to mark major CAD/USD moves. It was after the latest US and Japan elections that those currencies took off on a tear, one way or the other.
Closed at .1655 Election or no, I'm playing technical at the moment. But you're right on with your analysis.