Overall, I'd agree with you. But sometimes it's smart to fade the trend. I've done it and made out like a bandit before. Especially fading a downtrend that is at a multi-decade low or an uptrend at a multi-decade high. Like USD/CAD is at now. Hell, like CAD is against just about everything.
Of course i try to fade the trend on 24/11 long 1.7003 and get out break even the next day when my entry point was touched
It's option related defense, which means it's only good at the moment But don't worry. Take a look at how oversold the dailies are. You'll get a bounce. CAD cannot continue to move in a straight line forever.
We could have some interesting price moves today if the fed waivers in its commitment to raise interest rates. It's possible usd/cad could fall far below .1500 depending on the language. But alas I'm counting on the fed affirming its stance against inflation which should bring balance to the usd/cad pair. Time will tell soon enough. Let's hope this noob forex trader is right.
I think you'll have a change to the "measured pace" language, but I doubt seriously you'll see a dovish statement.
USD/CAD took a small plunge after the fed raised the interest rates. I would have expected the USD to rally a bit.