Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, Sep 30, 2005.

  1. Dunno 'bout you folks, but I've gone long - heavy - at .1640

    Stop is way down below .1505


  2. What is your target? Also curious as to why you seem to have bearish leanings towards cad. Seems like one solution to prolonged elevated energy prices would just be to annex/buy out our northern neighbor.
  3. Overall, I agree with you. But these are numbers that haven't been seen since the first George Bush. Look at the 15 year chart, if you have one, or check out Oz forums - I think they have long term data.

    Normally I'm not bullish or bearish based on position alone, but this is too much to ignore.

    If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. *shrug* That's what happens in FOREX, right? Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you.

    Targetis .1780
  4. Oh, one more thing. One of the major thinking driving the CAD (check the crosses soaring as well) is the prospect of rising rates. If the Loonie stays this strong for a bit, the BoC will consider pausing based on strong currency alone. And they actually don't have to pause, all the market has to do is think they might pause.
  5. Gotcha. What has BoC been doing with rates lately, mimicking the Fed?
  6. Short term the CAD trend is definitely bullish, the market has started to view CAD as a proxy for oil/commodities. Longer term the trend is less certain, to overcome scandals from earlier this year the gov't mortgaged the future with huge amount of patronage to all the parties. As long as the price of Oil remains high CAD looks good.

  7. I just got creamed on a long USD/CAD position entered at 1.1728, position is still open. Good news is that the USD dropped against all currencies, so it's not just the oil. I'm hoping for a bounce back up.

    The reason I was long the USD/CAD is because the Canadian news is really pushing a $0.90 Canadian dollar (1.200) by the END of this year, present level is $0.86 (1.1627). I figure when the news gets on the bandwagon it's time for the Canadian dollar to drift back to $0.83 (1.2048) or so.
  8. (USD/CAD down to 1.1589. current 1.1623)

    *shakes head slowly*
  9. taodr


    FWIW. Jim Willie has just come out with letter very pro canada. Especially pointing to Canadian dollar as a "petro dollar' which will have significance when Iran starts it oil exchange shortly.
  10. #10     Sep 30, 2005