Toughie. I'm saying down as it looks a bit like a head and shoulders (the uptrend part), the dominant trend is down, and there aren't really any touches at the top (for the part of the triangle you're seeing). If there is an upside breakout I suspect it could try to pull back to the broken uptrend line over time, but who knows. Do note that I'm not a profitable trader right now, so don't take my word - looking forward to watching it pan out. Why are you bullish?
1 day and a 30 min http://i34.tinypic.com/23r7dw6.jpg[/IMG] http://i33.tinypic.com/2s79hdf.jpg[/IMG] Both solid plays, IMO Time frame and risk tolerance, you decide!
triangles= highest probability continuation of trend triangles = wave 4 triangle does not look complete; looks like it needs a little more up first before downtrend continues
The euro just broke out in the same fashion. Im short the pair based on a dollar bounce. The CAD is an attractive play but I don't want to be long this dollar more than I am.
Not sure I agree da-net, it looks like the TLs bounding the triangle on the top have far more strengh than the other, and it seems like five waves to me. I would definitely monitor reactions to the next upper TL though. Edit: I know I said I was bearish but I likely would have looked for a breakout either way as Ronpaul did
Sideways - it'll trade flat, straight through it, breaking neither up nor down. Looks like that's already the case. Triangles on a such a timeframe usually don't have big breakouts from my experience, most of the time, price simply trades sideways through it. USD/CAD during the Asian session is also rather low volume, leading even more credence to a non-breakout. In any event, its outcome is a much lower probability setup than the clean test of the 3-month trendline we had earlier today. I couldn't have asked for better price action. Anyone else catch it?