USD as world reserve currency coming to an end?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by kmiklas, Sep 2, 2021.

  1. kmiklas

    kmiklas

    I had an epiphany about this tsunami of Fed and ECB money printing.

    --> There is a structural change in progress
    --> The US Dollar is losing its place as the world's reserve currency.
    --> The Yuan is replacing the US Dollar
    --> Change is happening, and we're in the storm.
    --> It's often hard to see the storm if you're in the middle thereof

    Given the extraordinary and unbridled amount of QE, the reaction must also be something extraordinary; beyond even inflation. The money-printing, 0 rates, etc. is a last stand for the dollar; a final pitch to keep it on top.

    In my opinion: buy CNY and learn Chinese.

    reserve_currency.jpg

    Ref:
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
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  2. As an economist I would say that it is possible to avoid the need to print money if the government switches to a high growth economic strategy. If a higher rate of economic growth is generated over sustained periods it can shrink the government debt as a percentage of GDP, without having to increase taxation or make government spending cuts to pay it off.

    There are many ways economic growth can be increased through the implementation of a new macroeconomic toolkit, which has previously not been available. Innovation in macroeconomics could enable an alternative method of dealing with the economic crisis. See the article below for an idea of what can be achieved through a new economic toolkit.

    https://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/2021/08/a-new-macroeconomic-toolkit-can-provide.html

    The report I had published at the Treasury Select Committee in the UK presents my position in more detail. You can read it for free by following the link below, which contains directions of how to download the PDF file.

    https://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/2021/07/jobs-growth-and-productivity-after.html
     
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  3. zdreg

    zdreg

    Why do you think Jim Rodgers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund, with George Soros moved to Singapore? One of the reasons was to make sure his children grew up speaking Chinese. Why do you think Americans are giving up their citizenship in record numbers?
     
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  4. The $USD isn't actualy "coming" to an end.

    It's being trashed... thrown away... by our greedy politicos and Fed. I guess they figure they can somehow carve out even more for themselves from whatever replaces our currency.

    :(
     
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  5. zdreg

    zdreg

    They have the leverage(double-entendre intended) to benefit themselves.
     
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  6. kmiklas

    kmiklas

    I didn't say that the $USD is coming to an end, I said that its position _as_the_world's_reserve_currency_ is coming to an end, and the Chinese $CNY/$RMB (Yuan/Renminbi) will take its place.

    In other words, its days as the earth's numeraire are numbered.

    ...additionally, it's a little disconcerting to see you people _agreeing_ with me. I'd kinda hoped that you'd shoot this idea down. If I'm right, this doesn't bode well for me here in the USA.
     
  7. JSOP

    JSOP

    Would be good for USD to not be the reserve currency then all the countries would stop pegging onto it. That means we can get our exports back again and start producing again. All those ghost towns with abandoned factories and plants can be revived again. US will finally be able to rebuild its economy. And those other countries would instead start to peg onto the new reserve currency, the yuan. China always wants to be the world leader so now it will get a taste of what it's like to carry the majority of the world on its back.

    It's not all bad. There is a silver lining in everything.
     
  8. Kind of the same thing.

    It's not going to be, "one day, we wake up and the world says that $USD is no longer reserve currency". We will lose that status when our currency has been devalued enough that the world looks for an alternative. I think most likely there will be some sort of "basket of currencies"... of which the $USD will be one. That's "better than nothing", I suppose, but we won't have the clout and privilege we enjoy now.

    Losing reserve status is a big deal. When the BP was king, a "Pound Sterling" was pound of silver. If it were still that way, a BP would be worth $14.6 x $24 = ~$350 instead of its current $1.38.

    The Yuan isn't big enough to handle the role, but boy wouldn't the CCP love to be in that position?
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
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  9. zdreg

    zdreg

    There is no silver lining. There has never been a country that has been able to devalue its currency to prosperity.
     
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  10. zdreg

    zdreg

    The US has enjoyed decades of financial mismanagement. If there is no one to sop up the excess dollars printed, inflation will skyrocket and living standards will plummet. The US will become a second world country ricocheting from one financial crisis to the next crisis.
     
    #10     Sep 2, 2021
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