Of course this will have a longer lasting impact on the economy, but far from as extreme as those numbers are currently suggesting.
Since we are in uncharted territory, (Literally in the history of the market) nobody really knows WTF they be talking about, and we're all taking shots in the dark as to the true outcome, and over what timeframe.
What many are neglecting to understand is the Fed & government does not create goods & services, it can not create prosperity by expanding the nearly $24T debt bubble. Tax payers pick up the tab - future generations are screwed. QE has proven to be a big failure. The Fed lost control, when they take their foot of the gas to unwind their balance sheet the market tanks. Expanding the massive debt bubble is not prosperity - its a train wreck. The Fed is like a junky. There is noting they won't do to avoid the pain necessary to make a lasting & positive change. They always need a bigger fix. Frst it was 1 bag (QE1), than 2 bags (QE2), now they need 20+ bags a day (QE infinity) just to not get sick. This will not end well.
I don't see this turning into a prolonged depression unless something major changes. Some are even predicting that we'll be back on track by the 3rd quarter. That may be a little optimistic, but I could see it happening if the virus does turn out to be seasonal.
could be because the last 200 times you fear mongers predicted something you were wrong. you might be right one day, maybe this is it , maybe not
From living and travelling in 44 countries I believe the flu is not especially seasonal, it surges in December partly/significantly due to cold weather and weakened immune systems and obviously mixing/returning in the holidays but my March that years strain has run out of people to infect, the herd immunity that is spoken of. I have got used to getting touches of flu and colds randomly through the year living near the equator. Good for my seasonally affected etc. Seperation will significantly extend the time to this herd immunity with Coronavirus. Bearing in mind a huge number of vulnerable people are (often successfully) immunised from the flu every year and leading to a far lower death rate and we don't have this for Corona with is more contageous, contagious for longer.. Well I guess watch ecuatorial and Southern hemisphere countries to see how it will keep going in the northern hemisphere past April and into the summer. We have been extremely fortunate on timing, had this hit in November.. Ouch and Argentina, Southern Brazil will be in hell during June/July. Anyway just pondering aloud, hard to keep all the mental balls in the air on this one... I don't see it going, just slowing, resurging, hopefully changes in diet and lifestyle will help though many are just getting even fatter staying at home. The genetics boys say it seems to mutate slowly, maybe though we have a re-infectable strain by next December. I expect after this and the next mass quarantine people will just settle into accepting a lot of deaths to save the world economies but these numbers will be lessened somewhat by intense efforts now. Time to make tea.
The forward oil curve can provide some perspective - the prompt two months are extremely depressed, then monster Contango. Today’s settlement: May ‘20: 23.18 July ‘20: 28.68 Sept ‘20: 31.28
I got you chief Also do people not realize that every dollar the fed lends us has to be paid back with tax money?