US Treasury to issue 50-year bond

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by Real Money, Nov 14, 2019.

  1. Real Money

    Real Money

    Any of you rates guys think this is going to be a thing?

    Full disclosure: I have been building a technology and information edge since early spring of 2019. This has become successful. I am focused on the ultra-bonds and index futures (and spreads).

    My question is, if this were to happen would it be a win for ultra bond rates traders? I mean that in terms of liquidity.

    At times the long duration rate futures are trading at the midpoint during RTH with a two tick spread. Is there any rhyme or reason to the bid-ask spreads blowing out on the ultra bond rates book?

    Seems like the big $$ guys are very aggressive in the book at times. Significant trading going on inside the spread and there are major size imbalances as well.

    Anybody have the inside baseball on this market?
  2. gaussian


    Nothing quite like locking in 50 years of rock bottom returns...
  3. maxinger


    50 year bond should be excellent for day trading.
    Real Money likes this.
  4. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    We have the ultra bond here on the futures side...same tick size as the 30 yr ( ZB) good volume overall.
    upload_2019-11-14_6-24-40.png upload_2019-11-14_6-24-40.png
  5. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    Makes sense for the US Treasury. Practically free money to buy more printing presses, Ford Class Aircraft Carriers, and to issue 63 million Social Security Checks.
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
  6. Real Money

    Real Money

    But what about rates traders on the long end of the curve? Will this change things?

    The spreads get wide sometimes bone. Other times there are huge imbalances and aggressive taking of liquidity. They take ALL the liquidity and then start trading inside the spread! I know how to read a book, but this stuff is kind of new to me. Crazy action on the back end of the curve....
  7. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    I get the sense that you’re not looking at OTR cash Treasuries. GovPix, Brokertec, CF

  8. Real Money

    Real Money

    This sounds like the stuff I need. Would like to have some real-time insight into the cash market but haven't really got serious about it yet. I am moving towards rate futures a lot more just because they are so good for trading. Leverage, spreading, price action, margin treatment, lower commissions.....

    I only have regular data feed from IB currently. Not sure how to get all that stuff going.

    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
  9. Real Money

    Real Money

    Just thought I would post this here. I can't even imagine having to deal with pits and shouting matches with spitting and signalling. Running actual corded phones at all times. Real traders are what inspired me to become a trader. Huge respect for the pros. Heroes to me.

    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
    MikePence, murray t turtle and jys78 like this.
  10. WealthSignals

    WealthSignals Sponsor

    Eventually it reverses its course and then I'll jump in to lock a double-digit return for 50 years. Hope this happens before I'm too old. Just kidding - but who knows. -Eugene

    #10     Nov 16, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.