US Treasury Bonds Futures

Now that the gap from late May has been closed, will the bonds resume its upward move? The monthly chart shows an uptrend but for some real serious upmove it has to breakout of the massive triangle. As a private trader, I can't trade off this monthly chart because of the larger risk parameters, but it sure does help me to keep an eye on the long term trend. A lot of posters on a bunch of forums are bearish on bonds, and perhaps that is a leading indicator of bullishness of the bonds market

Just a thought, please post yours.

Maji

 

sheesh ... makes one wonder why not just trade off long term trend lines ( with a close stop ) !

 

i believe fundamentals will be more helpful than technicals on such a time horizon as this.

 

The Fed has already mentioned the possibilty of reissuing 30 year bonds. If that happens I would imagne that will force the bonds down some and steepen the curve a bit.

 

I agree that this is what should happen, but since that annoucement they have rallied, so the opposite of what should happen is happening. The fed seems to be doing everything in their power to make these things sell off, but it just ain't happening, the major market manipulator is losing control.

5 yr

 

Almost ripe for a sale!
Not quite there yet.

 

Italy & France sold some 50 year bonds, I think theres plenty of demand for long paper.

 

That technical parttern on the chart is invalid.

there was a 20 point difference between the DEC '99 contract and Mar '00 due to the switch form a hypothetical 8% yield to a hypothetical 6% yield.

I found an adjusted chart somewhere that showed a very strong uptrend that started in the 80's still going strong. You can imagine it if you look at the chart with the bad data and just subtract 20 points before 2000.

 

I believe that the Treasury dept. is going to make the final decision on Aug 3rd

 

http://www.geocities.com/champeaudavid/usmonthly.gif

here's the link to the adjusted longterm chart of the 30yr bond futures