US Treasuries (10y?) since June 1st

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by Mashed, Jun 14, 2020.

  1. Mashed


    Hi, I use CMC markets to trade "US T-Bond-Cash" - I think this is basically US 10 year bond. Basically the yield hasn't changed since June 1 but there was a big sell off first week of june then there was a big bounce back. It hasn't been that volatile since early March. I'm a bit confused by the volatility but it broke major support just to go back to where it was, maybe due to second wave carona fear?

    I know I shouldn't be trading things I don't fully understand but I've been pretty good at managing the risk and using 100:1 leverage to my advantage and the risk/returns have been pretty good. Basically trading the 15min charts when I can and I like the slow pace. Just seeing if anyone else is seeing a similar opportunity.
  2. Nobert


    This is so contradicting...

    #1. Yes you shoudn't
    #2. There is no more risk managment when you're on 100:1
    #3. It's not advantage, it's disadvantage
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2020
  3. What goes through your mind when you click a thread after reading it and instead of helping him you shit on him, even after he says he's inexperienced. On top of that your broad statements are lame as hell. Leverage is good when you can use it properly. There are a lot of people who trade certain securities and have no idea what is going on behind the fundamentals like profitable forex traders who only use indicators for example. You have no idea what else he's trading but I guess it doesn't matter to you, it seems like you just troll posts to not add value on purpose.

    Anyway to answer your question, tbills typically have a negative correlation to the market. The bond markets can be more efficient than equities and some people use the bond markets as an indicator of what markets may do in the short term. The initial drop represented strength in the market but as soon as news outlets spammed worry about covid wave 2 the market fell & the inverse happened in the bond market. You need to read statements from the fed over the past 2 weeks and make your own interpretation on how the treasury markets handle it. Just some advice, try not to hold too much of this security over the weekend as you'll get caught with hefty margin rates with 100:1.

    I'm sure others can add on top of my advice regarding tbills as I'm not really a bond guy.
    Mashed and zenlot like this.
  4. Nobert


    Please. Spare me of this. This is a constructive criticism.
    I haven't insulted him nor do i want, but your post, i quit reading it after first sentence.
  5. Mashed


    Thanks ill look into it and watch out for the news more. Nobert he is right if you aren't going to say a word about the thread title then don't bother with your opinion, you haven't helped at all, the thread is supposed to be about tbills, which you have said jack about. You want to bet your life you have never used leverage to your advantage? on a trading and investing forum? Please wanker lol.
  6. maxinger


    it moved tremendously during Feb / Mar 2020.

    since then, movement has been rather tame.
  7. Nobert


    Wanker, lol. Jordan Peterson laughed too when some woman called him like that.
    The two of you fit well.
    Bet gonna end up at the same poker table.

    Gona put on ignore laters, just want to see a last post, that i could laugh at.
  8. Sig


    Saying "Basically the yield hasn't changed since June 1 but there was a big sell off first week of june then there wasa big bounce back." about Treasuries may not make you a wanker. But it does make you someone who doesn't know even the most fundamental aspects of how bonds work (price changes inversely to yield in a strictly mathematical fashion so what you stated is a mathematical impossibility). And who is using 100:1 leverage to trade this instrument they don't know the first thing about. And then talk about risk vs reward, something one clearly would know nothing about with respect to Treasuries trading if they don't even understand bond fundamentals. And who then goes on to a personal attack on someone they don't know's trading experience. Come to think of it, that does all together make one a bit of a wanker.
    bone and Nobert like this.
  9. Mashed


    Mate you're confused, I never said I didn't know when yields rise prices fall or other way around, and if you looked at the chart you can clearly see the drop then the bounce back up to the same levels it was on June 1st. Maybe I should have said price instead of yield but sure either way my question was pointed at the major volatility over the past 2 weeks. I never said I knew nothing about bonds I wanted to know why it was more volatile recently vs the past 4 months.

    Your notes about leverage is your opinion I don't really care for. I've been a profitable forex trader for over two years part time in between calls and have no idea what is going on in economics I just use indicators i was taught and set my targets and that's it. Using same indicators for these treasuries and has been working out.

    Just here to learn and people are not contributing to my question and instead are talking down to me so thanks for being that person.
  10. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    There are clues in Gold and to a lesser extent the US Dollar Index.

    IMO you’re going to see rangebound trade in both fixed income and the major stock indices for the next few to several months. I am expecting the June jobs number to be a ripper similar to May.

    #10     Jun 17, 2020
    Mashed likes this.