Hi I have a few questions about these, very grateful if anyone can help! I want to bet on rising inflation and raising of long term interest rates, I'm considering short 10 T-Notes and / or 30 yr T-Bonds.... Can anyone comment on which of the two is likely to show the most downside potential in a rising inflation environment? I noticed that the 30 yr T-Bond has been showing a little more strength than the 10yr notes over the past week or so, is there any reason for this, and is this likely to continue (on the assumption that inflation does indeed pick-up)? Very grateful for any thoughts at all. Best regards Ridu
True, but you also have to expect the unexpected. "Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpectedâI might even say of the unexpectableâranks high." Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator
Bernanke and Paulson have shown a total disregard for inflation and the dollar the number one theme in today's market on a daily basis is credit (bank to bank) and earnings right now, more economic issues. You can short a ZB right now and be a 60 tick winner or loser in a matter of a few hours...do not get short the the long end of the curve as the spooz find there way back to 1280, if the spooz hit there and reverse back up to the top of the range 1365-80 then you can get short and hold it. That being said holding positions overnight in these mkts is extremely risky if you do not know what you are doing and you will blow out. A lot of processes are in play right now with big players acquiring and dumping large amounts of treasuries on a daily basis because they have to have them on their books for credit facilities so be careful. Check out the "Anyone short the US Bond" thread and you can see the ups and downs of fellow traders trying to time the mkt.
There is plenty of money to be made in ZB, you just DO NOT average into these now a days, they can and WILL go a full handle against you if you are stubborn. I used to take home a pile of these overnight in the old days....now a long term trade is 3 hours! el surdo