Actually I understand statistics. Which means that if I determine that an event has a 10% chance of happening, then it happens, it doesn't mean my determination was wrong. If I determine that something has a 10% chance of happening, and that same thing happens over and over at a 60% rate, then I would suspect my determination was wrong and try to figure out why. Brexit was a one-time event and no professional was predicting a Stay with 100% certainty that I know of. Therefore it is not a repudiation of all polls in general if the low probability event happened. U.S. Presidential elections have a lot more history, i.e. we've done this kind of poll a number of times and if a poll is wrong over and over we have a better idea that is isn't reliable. But it is still a small sample size and there are differences between elections, so a good polling aggregator (like fivethirtyeight) will take that into account when determining confidence intervals. I'm not sure there is such a thing as a "liberal brain", but if that means I understand statistics and use them properly than I guess I'm guilty as charged (I know plenty of conservatives who know statistics better than me though, and I think they'd be offended if you called them "liberal brains"!). Since I just not only showed that I believe there is a possibility I am wrong, but actually quantified the chance that I think I'm wrong, your comments are demonstrably false. Again, once you understand statistics you can engage in an intelligent conversation that involves them, until then you're just exposing your lack of understanding of this subject that requires a little effort on your part to learn.
Autodidacts sometime produce the best insight because you come at things from a different perspective, so great to have people like you both interested in the subject and contributing. R-finance is great, although probably like you it often launches me into a day of re-learning something I thought I knew but clearly don't!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 Trump odds have come in today....5.2/5.3... they were 6.4 on wednesday
I think Trump will win. What should I trade to take advantage if this occurs? I'm thinking long gold futures and calls, long vix futures, short stock index futures. Or maybe just bet on Trump at betfair? Already have a bet on 6.0.
Just look at what the indexes did when the investigation news was released (hint, they tanked). Buy VIX futures or go short the indexes if you think Trump will win. Really VIX futures are the safest because then you don't have to guess if the markets will like or hate it, you just know it will be a shock to the markets which have priced in a Clinton win. I've actually been saying this for some time to those who think Trump will win, unfortunately if you didn't act on it the future's got more expensive today than they were before.
There is the possibility of Clinton being forced to step down and replaced by someone else as the democrat nominee....i've put a small bet against her on Betfair. Maybe Joe Biden or even Bernie Sanders!
Hillary is in trouble, for real. Can't believe that FBI decided to raise this problem right before the election.