US President election and Trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by noblehawk, Oct 23, 2016.

  1. Sig

    Sig

    Actually I understand statistics. Which means that if I determine that an event has a 10% chance of happening, then it happens, it doesn't mean my determination was wrong. If I determine that something has a 10% chance of happening, and that same thing happens over and over at a 60% rate, then I would suspect my determination was wrong and try to figure out why. Brexit was a one-time event and no professional was predicting a Stay with 100% certainty that I know of. Therefore it is not a repudiation of all polls in general if the low probability event happened. U.S. Presidential elections have a lot more history, i.e. we've done this kind of poll a number of times and if a poll is wrong over and over we have a better idea that is isn't reliable. But it is still a small sample size and there are differences between elections, so a good polling aggregator (like fivethirtyeight) will take that into account when determining confidence intervals.
    I'm not sure there is such a thing as a "liberal brain", but if that means I understand statistics and use them properly than I guess I'm guilty as charged (I know plenty of conservatives who know statistics better than me though, and I think they'd be offended if you called them "liberal brains"!). Since I just not only showed that I believe there is a possibility I am wrong, but actually quantified the chance that I think I'm wrong, your comments are demonstrably false. Again, once you understand statistics you can engage in an intelligent conversation that involves them, until then you're just exposing your lack of understanding of this subject that requires a little effort on your part to learn.
     
    #61     Oct 28, 2016
    cdcaveman likes this.
  2. Sig

    Sig

    Autodidacts sometime produce the best insight because you come at things from a different perspective, so great to have people like you both interested in the subject and contributing. R-finance is great, although probably like you it often launches me into a day of re-learning something I thought I knew but clearly don't!
     
    #62     Oct 28, 2016
    cdcaveman likes this.
  3. Visaria

    Visaria

    #63     Oct 28, 2016
  4. Visaria

    Visaria

    wow, 4.1 now...gold going up..must have been a new poll out
     
    #64     Oct 28, 2016
  5. FBI reopened the investigation into Clinton
     
    #65     Oct 28, 2016
    Visaria likes this.
  6. Visaria

    Visaria

    I think Trump will win. What should I trade to take advantage if this occurs?

    I'm thinking long gold futures and calls, long vix futures, short stock index futures.

    Or maybe just bet on Trump at betfair? Already have a bet on 6.0.
     
    #66     Oct 28, 2016
  7. Sig

    Sig

    Just look at what the indexes did when the investigation news was released (hint, they tanked). Buy VIX futures or go short the indexes if you think Trump will win. Really VIX futures are the safest because then you don't have to guess if the markets will like or hate it, you just know it will be a shock to the markets which have priced in a Clinton win. I've actually been saying this for some time to those who think Trump will win, unfortunately if you didn't act on it the future's got more expensive today than they were before.
     
    #67     Oct 28, 2016
    shatteredx and Visaria like this.
  8. Visaria

    Visaria

    There is the possibility of Clinton being forced to step down and replaced by someone else as the democrat nominee....i've put a small bet against her on Betfair.

    Maybe Joe Biden or even Bernie Sanders!
     
    #68     Oct 28, 2016
  9. Hillary is in trouble, for real. Can't believe that FBI decided to raise this problem right before the election.
     
    #69     Oct 28, 2016
  10. There is no way she would step down, "only over my dead body" as she probably would say.
     
    #70     Oct 28, 2016