created another thread because there can't be enough discussion on this in my opinion. anybody who follows US economic headline numbers (which are already probably inflated to look better than they are) knows the situation. it's totally dire. ditto for banks' balance sheets - they've gotten worse, not better. they're trying to inflate their way out and have thrown trillions at the problem and the real economy is so bad it's not even providing the intended band-aid effect anymore. i think it's important not to actually over analyze these problems - they're clear enough. maybe we should dumb it down a bit to get a clearer perspective. ponzi schemes are all about confidence. as long as the music is playing the game can go on, and right now it's DEFINITELY going strong. i don't think it's about monetary policy in the conventional sense anymore - the intended effect here is to get enough suckers to prop up assets and banks to start lending to these suckers so we can keep the ponzi going for a couple more years. but we're not too far from our all time highs in the indices and commodities are soaring and the unemployment situation is not getting better so i think they're running out of greater fools to keep it going. (i do feel bad for all the poor saps who have reinvested their IRAs here. theyre going to get fleeced all over again. a few of us may make couple bucks shorting stuff, but we'll pay it all back through taxes which will eventually go through the roof.) the way i see it our only way out is to have HUGE growth to pay back the ponzi deficit that's been created the last two years (not to mention huge existing debt and entitlements prior to that) but that would require real growth - not ponzi style asset prop-ups. wheres that going to come from? not the US, of that much i'm pretty sure. i'm also at the point where i completely feel that bernanke's "monetary policy" and geithner's handling of the "banking crisis" were completely in line with something madoff would've come up with. it's the same thing, guys. nobody's talking about real growth through new industries, our manufacturing talent, etc. c'mon america was good at fooling the world with financial innovation. a few people made out really well off it for a few years and we're left holding the bag. now bernanke's solution is to try it again cause he knows our other option is debt deflation-depression scenario since none of us can do anything in this country anymore but daytrade and sell mortgages. we're toast. maybe not this month or this year, but it's coming soon. and i really hope im wrong, but it once again comes down to "real growth" at the end of the day. i have no doubt it's a ponzi - bernanke will basically admit to as much, he's just trying to reflate so we get out of panic mode - my question is where the hell are we gonna get the next growth boom to pay for all this??? yet our stock market's 30% from all time highs and oil is at 80 a barrel. hmmm
The 20th century was the bloodiest in human history. And those are the times people look back on today with hart break? How easy people forget.
Shouldn't be all that difficult. All we need is ONE new thing or service... 1. Must be new enough that almost nobody has it already. 2. Must be so appealing, everybody feels it's a "must have"... willing to give up some other things in their lives to have the new thing. 3. Must be able to be made/serviced ONLY in the USA. 4. Must pay $30/hr, minimum to workers, distributors and service providers. Also must not require a college education to get the $30/hr job. That's it. Just ONE thing... and we could be golden again. The other place growth could come from... If the USA adopted tax and business friendly policies. Then foreign manufacturers would BEAT OUR DOORS DOWN to manufacture their goods here... and thereby employ American workers.
Dismantle the Federal Reserve. Then remove the income tax and use a consumption tax. Put limits on campaign contributions and have elections every two years instead of 4. Place term limits on the congressmen. Keep them from in trenching themselves into the corrupt system.
Bloom Energy - Bloom Box 1. Almost nobody has it. 2. Cheap energy for all. Enviro friendly. Cool, must have gizmo to show off at your next BBQ. 3. For a while at least, then it will be made in India. 4. Perhaps?
I'm going to say something crazy - not sure if I believe in it 100%, but I'll say it anyway: I think humanity may have peaked in terms of technological advances. But think about it. We drive, we fly, we sail. All these things have gotten cheap to the point that most middle class people have acces to flying, driving, and getting on a boat. Crop yields have also increased. What's left? Information? Yeah, that's great. Tapping on keyboards is more nifty though than anything. Look at Apple - great company, great technology -but in the grand scheme of things, their products can still be seen as novelties. The car is not a novelty. The internal combustion engine is not a novelty. What's left? Do we really need to keep growing the economy and consuming the world's scarce resources. When is enough, enough? Maybe we should all consume less, slow down the economy. Maybe everyone only works 20 hours a week - enought to live comfortably. We don't need so many clothes, gadgets, cars, etc... we can live in closer communities, get drunk, have sex more. cook and eat really good food.... We can be human again. Instead of rats stuck in a machine. (end of rant)
I wish it were that easy and hope we can have that kind of innovation - i just don't see it materializing for a while. i see too many fat lazy idiots in this country glued to TV and now internet (which for all the talk about increasing productivity makes me wonder if it really hasn't accomplished the inverse.) Your final point is something that i've considered. i just hope it pans out in a positive productive way. i'm scared it's going to look more like 20 years from now the US is manufacturing nike's for kids in china for 6 bucks an hour. i'm not doom and gloom forever, just we gotta deflate the hell out of this bubble we're back in now, take the pain, wipe out a few banks if necessary, let the CRE bubble just pop, if unemployment goes up another 5-10% so bet it. let the chips fall where they may, the free markets won't kill us. we'll be a lot poorer - but that'll set the stage for a "real" growth boom and we'll be hungry again in this country like they are right now in the EMs. but its never gonna happen that way. (bernanke loses renom, volker in - wouldve been a godsend.) so, wish i could be as optimistic as you but i hate how events are unfolding...today's bernanke rehashing of what he's been saying for a year and a half being another prime example.
Exactly! What the fuck happened? Were'nt we supposed to be sitting back, letting the robots do everything by now? Even the Flintstones had a better quality of life. I don't think humanity has really evolved much, despite all the technological advances. The medical advances have been great, don't get me wrong... but everything else? It just makes you run faster on the hamsterwheel of life. Yeah... I'm having one of those days.
actually enjoyed this post a lot and agree with most of your points. i'm with you that none of this should be too personally depressing in general - and i wouldnt be even if we went into a period of deflation/slow growth or even depression. i am just completely bearish on the economy in the US and disgusted with its leadership. it's true though that regardless of what happens to the market at least we haven't seen a major war in 40 years with heavy US casualties. that, in and of itself, is an amazing thing. we don't have it that bad at all...thats actually partly my case for what huge pussies we've become that we can't take the pain of a bad economy for even a couple years without going into complete denial and creating new laws and building massive deficits to basically save a bunch of people who spec'ed their buns off. watching hank paulson during the bank bailouts, you'd think we were hit by a nuke and lost millions of people. i guess for his cronies, losing their g5's and yachts wouldve been the equivalent.