US Jobs report FX Gameplan on Chat

Discussion in 'Forex' started by globalfxllc, Jun 3, 2004.

  1. Going over our game plan for tomorrows US jobs report.

    Come in and talk about the trading strategy for the Big US jobs report.
  2. any ideas om the over/under on the jobs report?
  3. Not so confident after last month huh?...:D

  4. to play the jobs report when you now have this to play with

    -Payroll Derivatives
    Traders and investors yesterday participated in the first of two auctions of U.S. payroll derivatives created by Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and marketed through ICAP Plc, the world's largest interbank securities brokerage. The second auction will be completed today at 8 a.m. New York time. -

    -An investor betting that non-farm payrolls will be higher can buy a call option with a particular strike price -- a level at which the contract would pay out. The more above the strike price, the bigger the profit.-

    -Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from underlying debt or equity securities, commodities or currencies. Trading of economic derivatives takes place outside exchanges in the so-called over-the-counter market. -

  5. no, not at all.
    I personally think it will come in line. But I am a trader and I will play it if it goes either way away from the mean estimated.

    I am just curious as to what people are thinking.
  6. seth, I think guys on the street are way long calls on this. I am not sure if I should fade the consensus. Just thinking out loud.
  7. What a slooooow night. almost there till the number.
    I still believe the number will come in line but if it come over the estimate I am willing to buy cable for a run. And short on the under.
  8. Wouldn't you rather want to short Cable or Euro if payrolls come above estimates ? This increases the odds of a 50bp rate hike on June 30 th thus reducing IR differential more so than a 25bp rate hike.
  9. That is what I meant. I typed it wrong.
    Yeh. If the number is way over, short cable. And vice versa.

    Everything is in a 20 pip range right now. The market seems ready to pounce on this number
  10. we should retest 1.2250-1.23 before the real move
    #10     Jun 4, 2004