Our demographics may be more favorable like the least smelly clothes in the dirty laundry hamper. Two generations behind Japan ? Depends on how fast we allow ourselves to continue to sink economically. Maybe one generation behind ? I refer to the following thread: [The U.S. being in a ] Demographic Whirlpool http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=255907&highlight=whirlpool The operative words are highlighted in blue. The U.S. has the POWER to the extent it has enough dollars and the dollars have enough value, right ? After all, the big stick being used in this approach requires first a termite inspection before being raised. The beginning page of my economics book decades ago described the science of economics with the example of having to make a choice on the sprectrum between guns and butter. That choice is made by the public considering its (1) war-weary mood, and (2) and its severely slipping quality of life. The military has something to say about it, too, TODAY: "A third of the U.S. Air Force's active-duty force of combat planes including fighters and bombers will be grounded due to federal budget cuts, and only the units preparing to deploy to major operations, such as the war in Afghanistan, will remain mission-ready, a top general said Tuesday." and, continuing.... "The current situation means we're accepting the risk that combat airpower may not be ready to respond immediately to new contingencies as they occur," [General] Hostage said in a statement. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest...s-will-ground-fighter-jets-Pentagon-announces Aircraft carriers disruppted by fiscal constraints: http://news.usni.org/2013/02/08/navy-lincoln-refueling-delayed-will-hurt-carrier-readiness Vulnerable carriers. Billy Mitchel rides again.: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/19/1188324/-Do-we-really-need-10-obsolete-aircraft-carriers Isn't it a matter of time how frequently we let our corporations sell technology to the other side AND how quickly we let our ("area 51") technology be compromised AND how fast we let it get stolen ? ... Nifty swifty: http://beforeitsnews.com/china/2013...-american-labor-for-financing-it-2445430.html Of all the non sequiturs I have seen, this certainly is one. Literary and Reality. Lots of room for redeeming explanation. Say it isn't true ! You are not suggesting the people put into the most powerful office in the world a junior who had no qualifications ? Or his appointed juniorettes had no qualifications or agendas to serve America's interest ? Nor are you suggesting people elect representatives who put self aggrandizement and agenda for re-election before America ? Why, the next thing I will see you write is that the people have corrupted qualities: quality of education is corrupt;corrupted quality in its understanding of economics; quality of knowledge or desire for knowledge of relevant current events is corrupt; quality of knowledge of American history is corrupt; and possibly corrupted quality in understanding of political spectrum anywhere from far left to far right. You are not suggesting....!
If Kyle Bass's trade is short JGBs, it's a silly one, IMHO. You really don't wanna be short an asset where you can get your balls squeezed before you get paid. And the BoJ can easily do that if and when it wants to. Moreover, you have to pay for the privilege of being short, which, with an uncertain timeline, is unpleasant. In fact, I imagine that this is the reason Kyle Bass's "Japan-o-geddon" fund has done so poorly, as he's been expecting JGB yields to go up since 2009. As I said, I believe the eventual resolution is similar to what Korekiyo Takahashi did in the 30s, namely, the BoJ will buy all the bonds and burn them. The trade, therefore, is to be short yen, rather than JGBs. I am short (yen, that is) and I like it. I am not a fan of Roubini. IMHO, he generally doesn't have a lot of insight to offer. The idea that factors like current account deficit/surplus and how much govt debt is held externally matter is hardly original. The point I was trying to make is simply that you can't compare a sovereign currency issuer like the US to the European countries, who are not sovereigns. A sovereign like the US doesn't need foreign assets, as it can create theoretically unlimited quantities of its ccy.
America is not headed the way of Greece and Argentina. It will find its own cliff to fall over⦠The New Yorker did a great article on Greece in 2011 describing Greece as having a national pastime of Tax evasion. http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki Factors like this are the main reason the tiny country of Greece cannot maintain its debt or its form of government without life support from the ECB and IMF. But let us focus more on America (please no more ânam I saw enough bullets there). No America will cave from within not from without. Here is what I believe will happen. Americaâs crisis is not just debt but big government. The objective thus far is big government will use any and all monetary resources like taxation or debt and legal directives (laws, executive orders, agency regulation) to gain total control of the U.S. society and U.S. business. This means big government is now trying to take over all facets of society and business using any method at its disposal. As a result the programs and regulations aimed at us are for total control of the fabric of society and business. These programs are pushing all monetary resources available towards the government and are pushing their limits. In creating this current vast big government politicians of both parties are guilty. The majority worship at the altar of big government. These politicians all believe they can keep big government afloat on their watch while partaking of the feast at tax payerâs expense. The fall of America in the future will come when a combination of many payments for different programs will come due all once and we will not be able to pay for all of them. It could be a combination like rising interest rates on treasuries, a bankrupt Social Security and Medicare, cost over runs on Obamacare, a new crisis in Europe collapsing the bond markets⦠But what I believe will drive this future collapse is the perception that the U.S. government can no longer tax or regulate its way out of that crisis. In fact it may take more than one crisis to finally put us in a real bankruptcy so we can finally fall over the cliff. What worries me more in the interim is the lengths our government will continue to go to finance this unwieldy big government juggernaut. I believe the hand writing on the wall for more taxes and regulations for individuals and businesses that will produce the spiral that could lead to a âbankruptcyâ. What bothers me most is there are just too many politician traitors (all parties concerned) in our government today willing to desert the sinking U.S. ship with their spoils while government flounders â¦
Right. So that goes back to Takahashis print and burn trade. Short USD. Except the USD has farther to fall, because of reserve status .. etc.
You give leadership too much credit. If it wanted to take over the means of production and control all aspects of the private sector, it would have to have better brains to conspire and execute that than what I see demonstrated in the executive and legislative branch. No, I see only an avaricious greed for more money to fund more big government. So even if you are right that the motivation is there to control everything, we are secure in the understanding that it doesn't have the IQ to do it. And its lack of success on the way of total control of the private sector becomes so messy and upsetting for citizens in sufficiently large numbers to prevent it from completley happening. I can see socialism everywhere, but I can't (yet) see motivation for total lack of liberty from either the elected or the electorate. Furthermore, I frankly don't see how our system (structure of government, voter's determining leadership's composition) could get to communism or fascism no matter how insidious it attempts to creep in, no matter how corrupt the executive or legislative branch is now. I give great credit to efforts successfully enslaving citizens and nourishing dependency, fostering the unwashed with the notion that it is "entitled." If the GRAND PLAN on the road for government to control production is this intermediary step of socialism that includes a moribund economy (the messiness) and more dependency and continued controlling influence of the media, and educating public school kids to be liberal and continue to similarly culture them in universities, it is working successfully. But even the description of citizens as I describe it in the last paragraph of my last post won't allow for total lack of liberty to happen on our way to total melt down. We have already seen on-going and continued multiple backlashes of over reaching government on state level, not to mention the current focus on federal. But yes, the march to socialism keeps the economy on its knees and citizen enslavement sucking government tit. In theory and practice (Cuba), communism can result with a dedicated core of armed dictators/demagogues, and the right mix of some private sector leaders and intelligencia can get us to fascism that arise out of the ashes of a completely failed nation. The longer our quality of life remains diminished and continues to diminish, the greater the success from those who wish to be controllers over the continually dumbed down in its acceptance as normal a diminished quality of life. Continued promises and demagoguery by the controllers in the powerful public sector who target the unwashed/unknowing voters works all that much better for the controllers. Big promises, big government is its own evolutionary Darwinism.
Absolutely wrong re: Krugman. He should have been totally discredited back in the early 2000s. Back then he wanted to have a housing bubble. Only certain "inflationists" try to time events, anyway. The smarter ones don't, and other mortal enemies of Krugman think we may have deflation or bouts of deflation and inflation.
Sure, I can see that... Problem is that these productive assets are gonna be producing USD, aren't they? There's no escaping USD, I'm afraid...