U.S. GDP slows to 0.6% growth in fourth quarter By Rex Nutting Last update: 8:30 a.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, growing at a 0.6% annual rate, the weakest growth since the economy was pulling out of recession in 2002, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The growth rate was lower than the 1.1% expected by economists. The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter. Consumer spending and business investments slowed slightly in the fourth quarter. Investments in houses fell at the fastest rate in 26 years. Exports grew at a slower pace. For all of 2007, gross domestic product grew 2.2%, the slowest growth since 2002. GDP increased 2.9% in 2006
Considering how the Powers understate the inflation rate, we could already be in a state of "less output than last year". But whether or not a recession is officially declared is irrelevant. It's not like something magical happens when the GDP drops to -.1%, or a switch is thrown, or a magical economic bean gets planted. The last genuine recession the US had was early '80s. (I know it's said there was one in the 90's and '01, but they were likely accounting fudgies mostly to justify some overzealous monetary and or fiscal policy.) Since then the Fed has been a money-pump maniac... perhaps with the intention of "never allowing that to happen again". So, we trade occasional recessions (which are overall healthy and constructive in spite of short term dislocations) for ever greater inflation and destruction of the $USD. And while that path is politically expedient, it will lead to the downfall of the US. But in the mindset of the politician, "a consequence postponed is a problem solved".
I disagree, I for one think that Q1 reading will be worse than Q4. And a recession by definition is- Take your choice, the list goes on and on- http://www.google.com/search?source...GGIC,GGIC:2006-50,GGIC:en&q=define:+recession -A significant decline in general economic activity extending over a period of time. -A decline in business activity. Often defined as two consecutive quarters with a real fall in gross national production. -A significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. -Two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. -A significant decline in economic activity. In the US, recession is approximately defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP, as judged by NBER. A recession in one country may be caused by, or itself cause, recession in another country with which it trades. -technically defined as at least two consecutive quarters when the economy shrinks or fails to grow.
You are good, but you are just good as an academican. What i saw is the trend, the bigger time frame which is reversing to the recession.... no one could stop it
so use other word then - deep slowdown for example if we don't get 2 quaters of negative growth we don't have recession
Your post is an ample evidence that US economy is not in recession. But institutional traders scared the hell out of you didn't they? Shorted the market and high fived to the bank. Now do you see clearly or still befuddled?
But the doomsday crowd suffering January depression needed some food for though to make a miserable month didn't they? Doom and gloom and a sprinkle from Davos summit did them in.