US Indices

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by HPbrand, May 12, 2020.

  1. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    US indices have been diverging since January. I'm expecting the Dow to drop more than the Nasdaq next week when volatility rises.
     
  2. Cannon_Trading

    Cannon_Trading Sponsor

    Lots of interesting spread set up in indices, energies, cattle and rates...This specific one is bumping against a tool I like to use as moving support/ resistance:
    upload_2020-5-12_9-30-28.png
     
  3. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    Normally they track each other, although today they seem to be, I find watching DAX with NQ to work better these days.

    NQ daily 7 green bars in a row, YM mixed.
     
    RBend and Cannon_Trading like this.
  4. %%
    Since the DOW tends to be weaker than Nasdaq /QQQ/SPY; sounds about right-even though APR tends to be stronger in DIA/DOW...……………………………………………………………………………….
     
  5. Metamega

    Metamega

    https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100

    The weighting of nasdaq is quite stacked at the top.

    Those top holdings are probably all doing better now during covid than before.

    SHOP.TO here on TSX has gone out of this world. I don’t even know what they do. But seems e-commerce is bullet proof. The whole premise to me sounds like Avon lady.

    Tech will never make sense. Where 100 PE is the norm and valuations are just created out of thin air. One can put a price on Caterpillar within reason, Amazon no one really knows.
     
  6. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    Starting from next week, the probability is high we will revisit sub 20000 level Dow. Maybe lower.
     
  7. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    The volatility is increasing this week but certain targets have not been met so far on the Dow. I'm building up my short position to short the Dow with a time frame for a big drop within 5 1/2 trading weeks. As a hedge, I keep a small long on Nasdaq.

    If I'm wrong on the drop before July, I am screwed big time. I would have to join the unemployment line. But probabilities is on my side.
     
  8. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    The Nasdaq/Dow divergence is not narrowing anytime soon. When the drop happen then yes, they will all drop.

    Based on probability, If I go long on US indices onward I will only go long Nasdaq. The Dow I will reserve for shorting.

    My certain targets are not met at close of month for the Dow. I will increase my Nasdaq long and hold my Dow short position until end of June. Not increasing my short for now.

    Are traders on here short term or swing traders mostly?
     
  9. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    Looks like my Dow Q2 low is coming. Might hold and increase short position if I feel the dump will drag into July/Aug.
     
  10. HPbrand

    HPbrand

    Thought over this current drop in the Dow again.

    I think it is not likely for the below Dow 20000 by the end of June. It will end lower at some point within the next 2 1/2 trading weeks but likely to rise straight after. So I will close the short before July, hopefully at a good profit, and go long.

    The below 20000 I feel is coming closer to the time of the US election.
     
    #10     Jun 13, 2020