For those who think a bottom is in the near future keep thinking, its YEARS away, prices will fall another 10% in the next 6-12 months and in the most over heated markets prices will fall 30-50%. The bottom is NOT in and wont be for at least 3 years. There will be bankruptces within the homebuilders over the next 12-18 months, maybe even sooner. S&P: US Home Price Decline Accelerates Tuesday September 25, 10:25 am ET By Vinnee Tong, AP Business Writer U.S. Homes Post Steepest Price Drop in 16 Years NEW YORK (AP) -- The decline in U.S. home prices accelerated nationwide in July, posting the steepest drop in 16 years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. Home prices have fallen by more every month since the beginning of the year. An index of 10 U.S. cities fell 4.5 percent in July from a year ago. That was the biggest drop since July 1991. S&P Index Committee Chairman David Blitzer said the severe declines may be done by the end of the year. "Maybe the first stage is steep declines, and we're just about done with those," he said. "The second stage is not much gain, not much loss. "The rest of the economy has to catch up to home prices." Yale economist Robert Shiller, who helped create the indices, said in a statement, "The further deceleration in prices is still apparent across the majority of regions." Shiller is also MacroMarkets LLC's chief economist and perhaps is best known for predicting the dot-com bust. A broader index of 20 cities fell 3.9 percent in July over last year, with 15 of 20 cities reporting that prices fell. The five cities where prices are still rising -- Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Dallas, Portland and Seattle -- have reported growth is slowing in the past year. Atlanta and Dallas are close to moving into negative territory, S&P said. Shiller, an economist at Yale University, told lawmakers in written comments last week that the loss of a boom mentality among consumers poses a "significant risk" of a recession within the next year. His comments came a day after home buyers and other borrowers got some welcome news when the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by half a point to 4.75 percent. It was the Fed's first cut in four years. The housing slowdown and decline in credit availability have triggered worries that the economy could go into a recession, spurring the Fed to act. Economists differ on whether the Fed will again cut rates during two meetings before year's end.
condos in my area that sold at 360k last year are now being offered at $250k... a house on my block thats been on the market for about 1 1/2 has had its price reduced by 1/3
The question is where is that seller buying his replacement home. He's got to live somewhere and I doubt sellers are going to just take any low ball offer if it ain't enough to buy a comparable home at whatever place he's are moving to. After this steep decline, we're going to get 7 years of a sideways price correction while RE valuations contract as incomes rise to make RE more affordable.
People are too pessimistic. The US economy is very resilient. Think 6 months to a year. Housing has already corrected enough that the median income buyers can come back into the market. Secondly, if you add the decline in the dollar into the calculation, housing prices are very cheap. If Americans won't buy real estate, very soon, the rest of the world will.
Nobody knows, but I think he's more likely to be correct than those who believe [hope], "bottom is in/near".
The rest of the world will buy US RE at some point.. using their "expensive" currency... (just another example of the criminal sell-out of US consumer by US Gummint). As for the rest of it, and as Dr. Phil would say, "you couldn't be more wrong if you cut your own head off".