Discussion in 'Economics' started by tibapuv, Apr 29, 2004.
what are peoples views on this today, bullish or bearish?
I was under the impression that the global economy peaked in 4Q03, however, by looking at China's recent Q104 performance - which has the exact same monetary policy as the US - today's GDP number will be at the upper end of the 5-6% range.
econmy fueled by massive borrowing and fake raise of asset prices won't last very long.
before you know, the new house owners going to owe more in mortgage than the house its worth..
then you can tell me if you are bullish/bearish.
ok, all of those that keep proclaiming that the housing market will collapse with a small rate increase are stupid shits. Rates will need to triple or quadruple before there is any real widespread effect on the housing market. 2% is just as low as 1% in comparison to the past 50 years.
i did not say the house market is going to collapse. but the asset valuations will change once there's alot more supply than demand. "collapse" is a label used by the media to sell their stories. do you really think interest rate is going to remain low forever? interest rate was at about 6% at jan 2001. im not going to be surpised its going to be at that level within 2-3 years. that's when you will really see the effects of supply/demand.
yes, even 2% is very low, but the bankruptcy rate had reach an all time high at 1%. last report that the personal disposable income has not gone up. with march CPI raise of 0.5%(6% ann), its not looking very bright out there. what kind of dumb dumb would lend you money at this low level when the inflation is at 6%?
all you need to do is to open your eyes.
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