late day institutional liquidity pumper was too early today-------bad move institutions------hahahaha! hedgies were hitting it hard from the pop to the close----------and their oil positions are making a killing right now-------hedgies scored some points this week in the liquidity war. i think we will see a noticeable increase in volatility next week----------getting a feeling about this one from looking at charts after the close.
The late day move was almost too predictable so it was a matter of loading up at the bottom of daily ATR and dumping into the close. There are unfilled gaps on both sides, so I see some tightening before the blowout and higher volatility. CFTC, hedgies added to Oil and the commercials balanced with shorts. The non-commercials have been wrong so far this year early April (long at the peak), early June (short at the bottom). Interesting to see how this will pan out. Normal supply and demand would see prices find equilibrium at random points, but in the last three days, oil has been smack on 65, 66, and today 67. I'll go equal long and short until the direction is clear, and not try to predict when it will move.
The problem with this is that the amount of clients ( pension funds for one ) that can commit capital to hedge funds is a drop in the bucket compared to the mutual fund arena. If you think that the mutual fund community is actually afraid of their clients pulling substantial amounts of money out and placing it with hedge-funds, you are sadly mistaken. For most equity clients, their Charters don't give them any leeway whatsoever to commiting a substantial percentage of capital with a hedge-fund, let alone any capital at all.
the actual real dollars pulled and moved to the hedges in the last three years--------and the prominence of an alternative to the institutional funds is a trend that is not well received at the institutional level. the very strong upswing in the total dollars held at the expanding hedge fund level was a fact that could no longer be ignored------------and then on top of that to be beat on the average yearly returns for three years by the hedges-------no, this has become a major problem for the institutional houses. in my opinion we are seeing a concerted effort to put a hurt to the hedge funds previously unencumbered market activities. plus my scenario is filled with all the normality of human nature------jealousy, pride, ego, fear, greed, anger, etc. i think we could find human nature at the institutional level.
Dow jones industrials has become one range bound index, today Marks 21 trading days in this 0.8% range.
no need imo, too much work not when you have the Midnight rally crew on your side...$$ Rickshaw rocks!
20 plus buy program hits today----------the liquidity pumpers were at it again-------------nyse tick scalping program bated 100% today. no way anybody is holding up this market-----------are you crazy!
While I respect your commentary on the liquidity battle between the institutions and the hedge funds, I am beginning to suspect a possible reincarnation of AMT4SWA...