Not bearish gold, just have debated in the past that gold is an overcrowded trade and I personally thought there were better stores of wealth than a hunk of metal. But that really has nothing to do with speculative trading, just another topic. I still hate gold too, not as a trade, just as a physical ownership item.
Any kind of numbers guess is a waste of time. Just like trying to predict the over/under in a football game. It can't be done with any kind of accuracy. I want to see what bombing Iran within the next year is going to do to the dollar. This is the next major event to impact the world economy. Government is already preparing the public for an attack. Get your popcorn ready, folks. All I know is nothing good is going to happen here anytime soon with the NWO in charge of everything. We're all little guinea pigs to the power brokers controlling us.
Combo of partly having expectations of an equity market correction of some sort, coupled with the dynamical fact that the short-dollar trade is one of the most heavily speculative fav's going right now; short dollar/long commods and equities. I also believe that foreign holders of dollars, TO SOME EXTENT, do not want to just watch their dollar holdings keep dying a little everyday and at some point may singly or collectively try to support the dollar. It is funny to me that we are still 7% higher than the lows from last year, yet the panick is as if this is an all time low/multi-decade low.
I must correct you on a few points.... Higher oil = higher CAD. If you think oil will rise, so will CAD. Government is in deficit this year for first time in quite a while. And even this deficit is not excessive. Bank of Canada has explicitly stated they will NOT intervene to bring down the Loonie, although they would like to see it happen. There is no real estate bubble in Canada. Many places never even saw significant depreciation during the past couple of years. Someone who watches the Canadian economy closely (as I do), knows that housing values will not plummet because we do not have huge inventories due to conservatism on the part of the banks when giving out mortgages... no sub prime crises here... Sorry I had to refute all of your points...
I noticed you overly optimistic probably permabull who never takes profits deficit is really huge. what country saved for 10 years is spent just in one year and no end in sight for this deficits Canada will repay for this recession at least 50 years if C$ doesn't collapse with US$ add provincial deficits which is comparable in Ontario to the government and the budget situation probably worse than in states And yes, bank of Canada will not intervene directly - they just will print dollars which might just crash C$ like it happened to GBP And yes, there is a huge real estate bubble with RE prices 50% higher than in US during their peak. and prices are 5-10 incomes And yes, canadian banks are not conservative at all as all loans are insured by the government and yes there is massive fraud happens right now in RE comparable to NINJA fiasco in states as a lot of people just provide false income information and banks don't check it as all is insured by the government and they don't really care when the bubble pops it's gonna be much uglier than in states
Don't disagree with that notion at all... it could very well go lower, and the DOW could very well break 10,000 at the same time. That's why I'm not making projections.