Not sure "all" is correct. Many believe the inflation rate is much, MUCH higher than the "public sources who TELL us what the inflation rate is" claim. Some claim money supply growth at 8-10%, others at 12+%. If that is anywhere near correct (and I for one believe it is), what the Gummint is calling "growth" is really nothing more than measuring inflation. Example: Let's say the US produced the exact same number of widgets this year as last, but the money supply increased by 6%, if the Gummint were honest, it would claim "nominal GDP +6%, inflation @ 6%, so Real GDP is zero". Alternatively, the Gummint could STATE "inflation @ 2%... therefore Real GDP is +4%"... and we'd all be happy as hogs in slop. Of course, the US might be producing .2% or .5% LESS widgets, but by measuring GDP by the PRICES of things sold (which includes inflation), it's easy to see how the US could actually be in recession and most of us not know it. Years ago, the Fed moderated the business cycle by lowering rates and expanding credit (stimulus), then raising rates and reeling-in credit (contraction). Now, they apparently just run the money-pump spigot full time and LIE about the inflation rate as necessary.
I'll 2nd this. Back to school sales isnt that hot. I've been getting too many discount offers from name brand retailers during one of those "frenzy buying period" No more equities withdraw
Nobody really takes online insults personally anyway, unless they have issues. Regardless, the world will shortly find out what happens when the US economy virtually disappears because the US consumer is tapped out. I am guessing the world will readjust and someone else will take Americas place. I wouldnt be so much in love with Americas economy if I were you.
There was a story today about the "Big 3" auto makers demanding the UAW negotiate the average hourly compensation down from $71 to $50, or the car makers were going to leave the US. ($71/hr x 2000 hr/year = $142,000... pretty darned good for putting lug nuts on wheels. But if they had to settle for only $100,000 per year.. well, that WOULD be a tragedy.)
Yup, let's all wear tin foil hats. Inflation is at record numbers unheard of before, 10 year interest rates are going to 6%, we're in a recession since 2 (or how many exactly???) quarters and PE ratios are at all time highs due to buybacks and stock option dilution. Put all your money in gold coins and bury it in your garden, the sky is falling.
S2007 has been bearish on the economy since I joined ET over a year ago. You won't be able to change his mind.