US 10yr yields at 3,974%

Real question is: WHEN will the US 10 yr gap be closed? Before XMas or thereafter?

 

When Powell sneezes and you hear "ratecutsoffthetable" *SNIFFLE*

Gesundheit

 

Folks are now trading ZNH4 - rolled last week which BTW has no gap.

 

I think the fundamental problem is Mrs. Yellen would have problem to find buyers for the US debt while Mr. Powell wanted to cut interest rate + high inflation (not enough reward to commit one's money in the long term. he could find better gain elsewhere).

 

As expected, yields jumping back over 4%, reaching 4,105% after NFP figures release. Seems, higher for longer still valid giving the wage numbers in the report.

But generally speaking: RECESSIONS in the US happen usually 8-9 quarters after first rate hike. Accordingly, recessionary warning signs should materialize this quarter or latest next quarter.

Anyway, don´t see ANY 125 basis point cuts AT ALL.