Contrary, You won't take my advice and figure out the P/L of each call rather than the net "correctness"? This gives your little study absolutely no credibility. H
The man is right. You can have a system that give you 9 wrong trades that have a total loss of $900 and give you 1 good trade out of the 10 and that good trade can yield $2000. So net PnL can be positive still.
You are assuming that you cut your losses at a certain point. But Rennick said he does not use stops, and he agrees that calls should be judged at 12pm (for morning calls) and 4pm (for afternoon calls).
I am absolutely not assuming that you cut your losses at a certain point or use stops of any kind. What I am saying is that you buy/sell 1 contract on the YM in a paper acct. (or just use a spreadsheet) and chart the P/L of each call rather than just whether it is right or wrong. I believe what you will find is that the winners outweigh the losers as I did in my study. Ultimately, the effectiveness of a strategy is based on its profit and loss and not the number of calls that were right or wrong. This holds true regardless of whether stops are used or not. FYI: The morning position is held from the time of the call to 12:00. The afternoon call is held from the time of the call until the close (4:00). I used the close of the minute following the timestamp on the call in order to determine entry points. In response to the post above me. I'm sorry but that is absolutely false. I am going on a training ride right now and do not have time to provide a reason so hopefully you can figure out for yourself why that is true (it has been discussed earlier). Also, you have two posts and registered this month. I would ask the mods to look into the possibility that this is a duplicate account. H
Sorry to sneak in this guys thread but this is news relevant to traders. ( Especially my new plans for next year) Old news but this was interesting from behind the scenes. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121902721834548771.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
FRI. 8/22 9:45 am dow +91 The mighty "Ball" is POSITIVE calling for continued STRONG Market action during the Morning session. BUY THE DIPS, OR GET IN NOW...SHE's GOING HIGHER... Rennick out
This call was correct. So far: 6 correct calls 7 incorrect calls Now where's all the shouting about keeping score when I ring up a correct call?
What contrary is doing is actually not a bad idea. I hate to say it Rennick, the ball's accuracy has been slippin.
FRI. 8/21 1:16pm dow+181 After nailing the morning call the mighty "Ball" has now turned NEGATIVE calling for WEAK Market action this afternoon. A FULL BLOWN REVERSAL IS AT HAND, REVERSE COURSE YOU CRAZY BASTARDS!! Rennick out