The 30-year and long-term treasury bonds have peaked. They're gonna collapse hard within the next six months. Munis and corporate bonds are gonna a rude awakening tring to raise funds in the future.
You don't say TIPS down hard today and long bond broke its DTL. Auctions fails mounting and debt repricing now extending to CP (when it can be sold). Basically stuff everyone who has been paying attention to the news this week already knows.
So I take it T-bonds aren't the safest place to be at the moment? This is a serious question. I trade forex and know almost nothing about the bond market. I've moved my 401k into treasuries until the dust in the equity markets settles.
You're right. It's pretty obvious by now. The longer end of the curve will finally start to price in real inflation.
soooo............bonds are going to get worried about inflation AFTER CRB Index hitting all time highs.........and AFTER USD hitting all time lows.........now is the time to get worried about inflation? don't get me wrong........the 20 year downtrend in rates has clearly been broken......but this fed will low rates another 100 bps and you're saying that bonds won't make new highs under such a senerio even if CRB index sells of hard and even if equities collapse? good luck with that trade
For my money, bonds are safe to sell now. Sure you will likely have some more rate cuts, and sure the market will revist its lows and possibly lower between now and next year sometime, but let's not be greedy and try to hit the exact top. We all know the trend going out has got to be higher interest rates on bonds. Patience will pay off big time here.