Updated SPY Chart- Finding the bottom of the correction

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by michaelscott, Jun 25, 2007.

  1. Starting from the top of the chart:

    1.) RSI- The last two significant corrections (May and Feb), the RSI went to the 30 line. It was only when the RSI went to the 30 line was there a bottom to the market.

    2.) MACD histogram- During the last two significant corrections, you can plainly see where the bottom was to be found and that was from -1.0 to -1.5

    3.) Bollinger Bands- The market is no longer traveling in the upper channel.

    4.) Volume- During the last two corrections, there was an expansion in volume and the bottom was found when it contracted. Notice how the volume is just as thick, if not thicker, then the last two corrections.

    Conclusion- We are going lower from here. No bottom can be found until there is a bottom in the RSI, MACD and the volume has contracted. As well, no buying should be considered until the market gets into the upper bollinger channel.

    The larger macro view is that the SPX cannot get above its old 2000 high so its pulling back. My calculations place the SPX at 1440 before any bottom can be found. Anything below that line and we will most likely get to 1100 assuming a 50% retracement of the advance of the SPX from its bottom in the 2002-2003 time period.

    This is the start of a broad based correction. If there is no recovery at 1440 then the strategy will undergo a macro change. A turnaround at 1440 means another attempt at 1550 and a possible breakout.
  2. notouch


    You might be right but just saying this is what a couple of indicators looked like the last two corrections so this is what will happen this time around is not good analysis. You could also point to a double bottom bouncing off the lower bollinger band and say the correction is now over, onwards to new highs. You see what you want to see.
  3. I looked at the chart again and took away all those indicators.

    For some reason, I dont think what your seeing is a double-bottom this time.

    I guess the reason why I look back at the last two corrections is because sometimes history guides us as to what will happen next.

    In my life, I have found people to never really change their behavior. People constantly act in the same predictable manner with a few variations. When they are happy, they smile. When they are sad, they frown. Of course, there are always those exceptions.

    I feel confident in my projection that the SPX will fall to right around 1440 with a possibility of a further fall to 1220.

    Look at my chart and you can plainly see why I believe this to be so. As for the timeframe, it could be a day or a few years. We shall soon find out...

  4. Here is another more colorful chart of the SPX with a few frills.
  5. Finally, lets marry up the colorful chart and the plain one together for comparison.
    • spx3.jpg
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