UPDATE: OCR; Closing the Trade on Vol Implosion

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Aug 6, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    * UPDATE

    OCR is trading $21.67 with IV30&#8482 down 17.7%. The <a href="http://www.livevol.com">LIVEVOL&#8482 Pro Summary</a> is below.

    <img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TFxD1dLCaJI/AAAAAAAAD8o/BfKN3lRT4QM/s1600/ocr_summary_update.gif">

    This is an update the blog posted on August 2nd: <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/08/ocr.html"><b>Omnicare (OCR) - Vol Spikes 40% on CEO News; Earnings Due in 3 Days</b></a>.

    In that post we looked at selling the exploding vol on the news:
    OCR announced today that Joel F. Gemunder, President and Chief Executive Officer, has informed the Board of Directors of his decision to retire, effective July 31, 2010. Mr. Gemunder, age 71, has been President of the Company since May 1981 and Chief Executive Officer of the Company since May 2001.

    The IV30&#8482 jumped 40% to 53.75. The Livevol Pro summary from that day is included below:

    <img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TFxD10IqyuI/AAAAAAAAD84/WWrKytfzi1s/s1600/ocr_summary.gif">

    On August 2nd I noted:
    For a risky trade I think a 22.5/25 strangle sale looks pretty juicy. A $0.95 sale of the 22.5 puts with a $0.60 sale in the 25 calls yields $1.55 on a $23.50 stock. Other trades could be a sale of the Aug 20 puts @0.35;

    The Livevol Pro Options Tab shows us the markets today:

    <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TFxD1gRK1WI/AAAAAAAAD8w/lKj7NDV1aKg/s1600/ocr_options_update.gif">

    We can buy that strangle today for ~$1.05, and the Aug 20 puts for ~$0.20. More than 50 have traded for $0.15 today out of just 57 contracts, so liquidity exists at a better price than the NBBO.

    If you did this trade, a close now seems good. The vol has come down huge; just as we hoped.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trdaes, prices, vols, skews, charts here: