* UPDATE: GE - Earnings Results

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Jul 16, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    * UPDATE
    This is an update to the blog posted yesterday <b><a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/ge.html">General Electric (GE) - Earnings Preview on Vol Pattern</a></b>.
    GE is trading $14.91 with IV30&#8482 down 1.4%.

    <img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TEBhH_xsjlI/AAAAAAAADj4/i7dk2HAIn-U/s1600/ge_summary_update.gif">

    In yesterday's article I noted that:
    GE has followed a consistent pattern for seven out of the last eight earnings starting with the 10-10-2008 cycle and ending with the last earnings cycle on 4-16-2010. Specifically, a straddle sale at the close on the day of earnings and a purchase back the day after was a winner seven times. Further, five out of the last five times have been winners.

    GE had earnings last night, the Options Tab today (after earnings) is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/ge_16.html">in the article</a>).

    We can see the ATM straddle is now worth $0.26. Yesterday, the straddle was worth $0.57. The one day trade would have turned a 54% profit ex-commissions. The updated earnings and dividends stats are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/ge_16.html">in the article</a>). This makes six in a row for GE.

    The price action in GE is a little too bearish for my liking so I am doing the close on the trade early. There is certainly a good chance of a pin and therefore closing this straddle for < $0.05 (rather than $0.26), but I think there's also a chance it goes < $14.50. A fun little bet could be to take $0.02 from the $0.31 win and buy the July 14 puts. You never know...

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, prices, vols, charts here: