*Update AVP - Earnings Results

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Jul 29, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    * UPDATE
    This is an update to the blog posted yesterday <b><a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/avp.html#comments">Avon Products (AVP) - Earnings Preview and Trade</a></b>.

    AVP is trading $31.00 with IV30&#8482 down 19.1% after earnings.

    <img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TFGJXOL-rdI/AAAAAAAAD0o/-MfWTwsNSI4/s1600/avp_summary_update.gif">

    In yesterday's article I noted that:
    AVP has followed a consistent pattern for six out of the last seven earnings starting with the 10-30-2008 cycle and ending with the last earnings cycle on 4-30-2010. Specifically, a straddle sale at the close on the day of earnings and a purchase back the day after was a winner six times and breakeven once.

    AVP had earnings last night, the Options Tab today (after earnings) is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/avp_29.html">in the article</a>).

    We can see the ATM straddle is now worth $1.95 (we can probably buy it back for $2.00). Yesterday, the straddle was worth $2.20. The one day trade would have turned a 9% profit ex-commissions. The return is not quite what we hoped, but it's a win nonetheless. If you bought the strangle to protect, you can sell out the calls for $0.15 and take only a $0.05 loss on that protection (puts are $0.00 bid), so your gain is cut a little bit for the hedge. The updated earnings and dividends stats are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/07/avp_29.html">in the article</a>).

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here: