Up 20% YTD, is that good?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by bwolinsky, Aug 14, 2008.

Is being up 20% YTD in FY2008 a good return?

  1. The market is down 10%, so it's an exceptional return

    27 vote(s)
    37.0%
  2. I've returned greater than 20% this year.

    30 vote(s)
    41.1%
  3. Just being up this year is an accomplishment.

    16 vote(s)
    21.9%
  1. Yes, I wouldn't want the added stress with a "lumpy 12%" vs. a smooth 10%. Buffett says some good stuff, but this wasn't one of them.
     
    #31     Aug 18, 2008
  2. Both, and I wanted to see what the poll results would say.
     
    #32     Aug 18, 2008
  3. Yeah, probably not one of his best.
     
    #33     Aug 18, 2008
  4. On the DD the returns relative to the market would like like this:
    DD % Return %
    PTQQS: 21.5% 81% for the entire system
    NAZ100 20% -10% from March 20th 2007 estimated

    This is how I stop to think about it.

    Sharpe is 1.3 for the monthly values when you dig into the advanced stats.
     
    #34     Aug 18, 2008
  5. LearningMarkets

    LearningMarkets ET Sponsor

    What's your Sharpe ratio?
     
    #35     Aug 18, 2008
  6. Hi, Mike:
    Per the edit: you know what the problems are, and it doesn't apply to all of them. Some of the autotraders can't even get routed to the right station for the best fills. Persistent is specifically what comes to mind, and for a more long term case that supports what I'm saying, extreme-os, I think has been debunked.

    I'll pm you in a second, but currently I feel I'm at a lull. I'll catch a big move sooner or later. I think the long term APR is around 120%, and it'll just take 1 10% win that makes 20% to get up to 80% about, then we'll be at your mark.

    Per 2: you can scale down.
     
    #36     Aug 18, 2008
  7. If I could produce a consistently profitable system (not!:D ), and sell it for 8.5mm, I'd say "wire the funds to ____ _____."

    After that, I'd contract with the buyer to have him/her trade $500,000 of my account while the rest is spread out among:

    5-10% Oil and Gas Direct Participation providing quarterly income as well as a 3-5 to 1 bang when the properties are sold in 5-7 years. (CHK is the likely buyer at about 60% of the ask, which would yield a 3-5 to 1 return if NG averaged a VERY conservative $6.60 over the next 5-7 years. Can you imagine if NG averages $9.00 over the next 5-7 years?!?! WOW!)

    5-10% Private ALL CASH non-traded RIETs providing monthly income

    5-10% Equipment Leasing program providing a 9.65% monthly distribution, as well as a 180% projected return WITHOUT looking forward at rising inflation and rates, which make the investment a hedge, providing a bigger bang. (This one is what I would call "right" for the current environment going forward. I couldn't think of better timing without going back to the Carter administration.)

    30% in a program similar to the one I personally run which is 18-25 equities/etf's with covered calls written on about 50-60%, and puts on EVERY position.

    30% in a long/short equity program.

    5% Managed Commodities.

    5-20% cash depending on market conditions, and if "all cylinders are firing." If all cylinders are firing, more into the markets. If not, we hold more cash.

    Results= living comfortably!


    I'm sure there will be some guys here (probably me too) who are willing to put 5-15k in beau's automated program(s), and do well, posting the results along the way.
     
    #37     Aug 18, 2008
  8. SPAN1SH89

    SPAN1SH89

    your the one who's on drugs mate. I just made a comment so if you dont like it you can get lost.:p

    I was saying that the money management rule is not all its cracked up to be. Entries on your trades are the most important thing and if this is right then you dont have to worry about stop loss or mooney management as you will always make money.

    Check out my trading blog if you wish and you'll see how well i do on oil.

    :D

    I dont make a lot per day, about £200 but i only need £50 to live on so the rest is mine and as i spreadbet (the sensible way) i dont have to pay tax so what i make is all mine.:cool:
     
    #38     Aug 19, 2008