Up 20% YTD, is that good?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by bwolinsky, Aug 14, 2008.

Is being up 20% YTD in FY2008 a good return?

  1. The market is down 10%, so it's an exceptional return

    27 vote(s)
    37.0%
  2. I've returned greater than 20% this year.

    30 vote(s)
    41.1%
  3. Just being up this year is an accomplishment.

    16 vote(s)
    21.9%
  1. 1. You currently show a 21% drawdown with a 53% annual return. That is a 2.5-1 risk ratio which is a little low IMO. Personally, I'd like to see a 3-1 minimum for risk versus reward.

    2. Your monthly drawdowns are too high. Investors in funds/systems do not want large down months. Better to lower the monthly vola in exchange for lower returns.

    3. In conjunction to point 2, your monthly variance is much to high as well. The swings are just too significant to deal with. Your 20% profit for the year seems to have come from 1 or 2 months.

    4. ONLY 51 trades so far... your system is still a baby... lets see 100 at least!

    Overall, you have an OK edge, but, nothing that would impress serious money. The $8.5 mil you're asking on C2 is a bit laughable as you have 1.5 years of track record on a site that, IMO, is amaturish at best. I say this with firsthand experience, I have one of my systems on C2 and have experienced issues with the website that illustrate Matthew's lack of initiative in terms of providing a high quality trading advisory service. PM me if you want the link to the system, this particular system is intraday only, has a max DD of 7% and currently on a path for a yearly return of 25%, I use low leverage though and this particular system is up about 10% so far this year trading only SPY shares intraday at 2-1 leverage. The monthly vola is reltively low. I personally think these kind of numbers are fairly easy to do and not worth anything near $8.5 mil as you may believe. Besides, what's to stop you from trading it up to that size anyway? Are you looking for exposure? If so, I think you should try a different route than C2... that's just my opinion though.

    Mike

    Edit: I forgot to mention that I find your comment about intraday systems being BS on C2 informative concerning your trading experience... my system is not BS and it is intraday. Again, someone with your background should know better than to make grossly wrong claims like that...
     
    #21     Aug 15, 2008
  2. How much % you're up without telling us the account size is meaningless. I'm up over 1000% on my daytrading deposit this year, and I don't feel my performance is exceptional. On my BP, I'm up 6%.
     
    #22     Aug 15, 2008
  3. Good for the decent return. That being said, I'd be more concerned about returns over a 30 year period.....Consistency is what separates the wheat from the chaff.

    Jeff
     
    #23     Aug 15, 2008
  4. Considering the volatility, I think your performance is okay. It's a risky, but 50% is possible. Look at how the financials alone move everyday.
     
    #24     Aug 15, 2008
  5. Max drawdown?
    Risk?

    If max DD and risk are moderate, yes 20% is a very, very good return.

    20%/y are nice, reallistic returns for the sophisticated investor. How many banks/bonds pay you even 10%, after all?

    Unlike those 5% per day stupid posts so common here at ET.
     
    #25     Aug 17, 2008
  6. I agree!
     
    #26     Aug 18, 2008

  7. I'm curious as to what your motive is for starting this thread - are you trolling for more funds or just looking for an ego stroke?

    And what return have you averaged over 5+ years? One year doesn't mean anything and it's not even over yet.
     
    #27     Aug 18, 2008
  8. bidask

    bidask

    you know what? as long as you get there it doesn't matter how you get there. warren buffet said that he would rather earn a lumpy 12% than a smooth 10%. this is common sense and its so true. just make sure you don't blow up before you get there.
     
    #28     Aug 18, 2008
  9. Do you drive a taxi in a Mexican border town, or are you using strange drugs? Maybe both?
     
    #29     Aug 18, 2008
  10. ScapGF

    ScapGF

    I couldn't disagree more :)
     
    #30     Aug 18, 2008