Discussion in 'Trading' started by oneway, Mar 3, 2002.

  1. tampa


    So let me see if I understand all of this.

    I have a nuke that will return Mid-Town to a cow pasture. So I fly a couple of planes into the WTC in September, alerting the US to my evil intent, and hold off using my trump card until October. Makes sense to me - and Pres. Gump and his boys.
    #31     Mar 4, 2002
  2. If terrorists did things that made sense they wouldn't ram planes into buildings or strap bombs around their belts and walk into crowded public areas.
    #32     Mar 4, 2002
  3. liltrdr


    I'm just thinking out loud here and I might be wrong. What if the terrorists are actually fighting a geurilla war? They try to strike "high impact" targets w/ a small force (sounds like our special forces) and hit the larger superior enemy at his weakest. If we think, "what would I do if I were in their shoes," things kind of make sense. They hit the WTC before. They finished the job this time. There were all kinds of hints that they would do this again. They hit our embassy in Kenya. They hit the U.S.S. Cole while we DID NOTHING. This was not a surprise attack. It's like people acting shocked at the NASDAQ crash. Was it really going to end any other way? If you were a terrorist, what would you go after? Major landmarks, and centers of government. WTC and the Pentagon (possibly the white house). I think there is a very clear logic to their methods. Just my .02.
    #33     Mar 4, 2002
  4. What answer do you want? The catastrophic event you ask about would have untold repercussions. The scenario is so nightmarish trading becomes a past event, something in our pre-apocalyptic lives.

    How could you prepare for this as a trader-it's so extreme. What do you do?

    If you are worried about this possibility, then consider what you would do as a fellow human.
    #34     Mar 5, 2002
  5. I'm just saying that I will not go heavily long, because I think that there is a reasonable chance that terrorists will cripple our economy (only in the short term of course) in the next five years. I don't think that they will ever use a suitcase bomb, but I think that they will figure out a way to use a dirty bomb or chemical bomb.

    And I am going to endeavor to learn other trading strategies that are less dependent on the U.S. I am U.S. stocks only now. I just think that that's intelligent: have another plan in case the mkt goes comatose for a couple of months.
    #35     Mar 5, 2002
  6. jms2828


    the last thing we would worry about would be the markets.
    #36     Mar 5, 2002
  7. liltrdr


    Think about it. The WTC get's hit. Thousands die. The pentagon is hit. The white house is almost hit. The economy is still here. It's still up and running and there's an article in the economist about a recovery! After the initial shock of WTC, I think America is able to deal with anything. Including a "dirty bomb." And from my research, a suitcase bomb is actually more like a big trunk. It's hard to cart this thing around, bring it in country, assemble it, and detonate it. Remember James Bond? Goldfinger (I think that's the villain) tries to irradiate the gold supply. Bet on the odds. Odds are that Al Qaeda is severely disrupted and can't mount a major operation for a long time. Odds are our government and the world will get its ass in gear and hunt them down. Everybody thought Afghanistan would be "another vietnam." The Taliban fell so quickly and everybody was amazed. Are we giving Osama too much credit? If he's even alive... As for trading, my bet is that the markets will take a dive and then recover. Just focus on the present. If it's going to happen, it will happen. America has been through worse. WW II. Vietnam. etc..etc. Do like Don Bright does. Keep smiling :)
    #37     Mar 5, 2002
  8. Have you noticed that, in 7 pages of (intelligent) commentary on the issue, no one posed the fundamental question:

    Given that this is possible, how do we prevent them from WANTING to do such a thing?
    #38     Mar 5, 2002
  9. Rigel


    Change your religion, give 'em what they want. That's pretty fundamental.
    Of course, it was easier for them to deal with people in Afghanistan who didn't agree with them. They simply paraded them around a soccer field in the back of a pickup during half-time and then publicly executed them.
    #39     Mar 5, 2002
  10. What's the point of worrying about this scenario? Even if NYC is reduced to rubble they will find a way to get the financial markets back up and running again. The US equity and debt markets are the engine of capitalism for the entire world. If anything, the system that rose from the ashes would be more efficient because it would be built with newer technology and more electronic. Traders would have to work a few jobs on the side for a while, that's all. There's no way a couple a**holes with bombs can take on the entire United States of America and win, all they can do is piss us off and strengthen our resolve to exterminate their kind.

    And what possible plans could you make to prepare for a nuke, besides turning into one of those gold and gun nuts? If there is no feasible action to take, then there is no reason to fret over the scenario. Unless you plan to quit trading and stuff your money in a mattress, there ain't a whole lot you can do, except for keeping an eye on the want ads.

    #40     Mar 7, 2002