Unidirectional trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by gifropan, Jun 7, 2010.

  1. I often find that in intraday trading the market visits the same level many a time. Where trend following has hurt me quite hard is the times where the market develops,say, an up trend, I pick up a suitable entry point, go long, and place a suitable stop, all according to technicals etc, I get stop out. OK. Then the market goes lower and confirms a down trend. I do the same, I pick up a suitable entry point and stop and now I am short.... and I get stopped out and the market continues to go up and passes the original level for the long trade. This means that the first trade would have been profitable only if I had a wider stop or If I had re-entered another long trade at a better price than the first one. Now as we all know to have a very wide stop in the market sometimes is prohibitively expensive. The alternative that I am coming round to thinking is to continue to place trades in one direction only and avoid big losses when the market is going in the not moving in your "preferred" direction. Obviously this means you have to be prepared to let go of moves which are in the opposite direction of your "preferred" one. The question is how to choose your "preferred"direction. Perhaps one can use a daily or even a weekly trend.

    In the past I have received many useful suggestions from ET members on my ideas and would be grateful for your contributions.
  2. You can't follow a non-existent trend.

    Do your entry criteria include scans for whether or not there's likely to actually be a trend going on? EMAs in a higher time frames, breakouts, movements in correlated markets, volume, change in open interest, stuff like that?

    If not, I'd start there.

    Personally, at least for indexes, if I get stopped out of my maximal-PF stop once, I'm done for the day. This has served me in good stead.
  3. piezoe


    If you want market direction other than intraday, you want to be looking at weekly and monthly charts and the trendlines and moving averages for those charts. Look not only at the broader market but also at what the major currencies are doing and how the market correlates with those currencies. BigD has good advice. There often is not any particular trend, i.e., the market may be consolidating, going sideways, or in a transition or indecision mode. Also, be aware that when volume is very light there is greater risk of a sudden move seemingly coming out of the blue and for no readily discernible reason.
  4. I would be grateful if you would expand a little on the above and perhaps which indexes.