A Google search for "At 24 to 1, an average loss severity of only 4.1% wipes out the bank" reveals several results for blogs with articles dated approx. 19 November 2011. This Yahoo messageboard post: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/S...m=tm&bn=6416&tid=27390&mid=27390&tof=20&frt=2 credits Porter Stansberry's S&A Digest
At 24 to 1, an average loss severity of only 4.1% wipes out the bank. .......................... you guys can argue all day long about exposure % et al. bottom line. they are all up a creek. s
I'm not arguing about the figures, but like Martinghoul wrote, it would be nice to see you attribute your source(s) if the research isn't your own work.
The vast majority of Unicredit sov exposure are in Italian and German debt, they have very little of anything else. So Italy pretty has to default hard in for the bank to fail(Or Italy face a severe recession). My bet is that the politicians will keep the game going for quite a while so if the short works it might take a long time to pay off
From Porter Stansberry's S&A Digest. ................................... a smart lad and he knows his math he called the gm chap. 11 at 50 bucks and the lehman puke at 90.00 i trade forex but watch his blog for the euro trash info. s
Can you provide a link to his blog? All I could find was the archive http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pub/digest/archive/index.asp with the most recent article dated 30 September 2008.