I got spanked last year trying to do the "seasonal play" on nat gas using UNG. This year (or whenever) my goal is to wait until NG hits the bottom of the channel, or low 2.00's at least, to start building a position in QG for a long term hold. May take awhile to pan out, but certainly will not break the bank.
Those looking for a way to play NG via ETF might check out GAS-T (not to be confused with GAS which trades in the U.S.). It's on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and doesn't trade at a premium to its NAV. And Canada isn't imposing any silly speculative limits on their funds the way the U.S. regulators are... Or you might check out CYMGF which trades on the pink sheets in the U.S.
I've read UNG has to roll their front contract starting two weeks early, making the contango effect severe compared to rolling near the final expiration day like a smaller trader can, where arbitrage brings the front and next contract close together. I've started collecting the QG (emini contract) and will average down to $1.50, where the marginal cost to produce the gas will eventually support prices. Good theory at least. It may take 6 months to a year but prices will eventually go up.
Bombs Away Again!! Breaking 9 decisively. Where will it end. I apologize to all for staying long and not caving and selling out, so it can go back up to 14 or 15. I'm truly sorry.......
Sorry, just saw your post. By now of course you know - yes, that's the mini. Still packs quite a punch at $2500 per 1.00 price move.