UNG has bottomed. No trend continues for ever. UNG bounce was long time overdue. In a week we will sell it at $4+. NG sept will go to $3.5 in less than two weeks.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157512-ung-suspends-new-shares-are-there-alternatives?source=yahoo just doesnt seem like id want to own this thing, even if the idea is correct
LOL after the market tanked at the close yesterday. nice rally. LOL How's your short SPY doing? no mention of that. UNG going to $7 Let us know when you puke it
i took a buck loss on teh spy.. bought tbt this morning and I am back to even .. no worries here mate. Ung will not hit 7 but if i see further weaknes in natty future I will hedge by selling a couple ng futs.. I am glad to see that you followed my spy short.. i did not mention it becaue i figured most could deduce that I was losing on that trade.. I will not be puking out this ung trade. ung is up 2.6% from teh low this morning.. i consider that healthy
hedge by selling a few ng futs? oh lord. good luck with that. you are standing in front of a freight train. let us know when you puke it. I have standing orders to buy UNG at 6.50 and 7.20
well since you brought up trains and you are waiting for 7 prints.. then i hope you realize that your train will never come .. you will be left penniless at the station.. maybe you can wait for a hog train and try and sneak on you bum! let me guess you are waiting until lean hogs hit sub 30 cents before buying.. lol
With all due respect, you clearly have no idea what you are trading. The UNG essentially tracks the FRONT futures contract. It doesn't track the back months at all, and has nothing to do with a 12-month "strip". You can talk all you want about the "market" looking out into the future, but the UNG has NOTHING TO DO WITH ANYTHING BEYOND THE FRONT MONTH!!! Moreover, if in fact the nat-gas futures are forward looking (as you say), why do you think that they are trading at contract LOWS in late August with Fall right around the corner??? Sept. $2.89 last. Furthermore, every time that the UNG needs to "roll" into the next futures contract, they have to pay the higher price because of the "contango" nature of the market place. As they sell out the front month and "roll" into purchases of the next month ( which is priced higher ) they wind up buying LESS contracts with the money in the Fund. As a result, without the ability to issue new shares and bring in "new" money, the managers of the UNG ( the United States Commodity Fund, LLC based out of Alameda, CA ) are forced to purchase LESS contracts. What do you think that does to the NAV value? Hmmmmmm....
obvioulsy reduces...nav..but the fund is priced at a premium.. due to this...arbing will keep prices in line...also even if you peronally have one contract and you want to roll forward.. you would have to sell your long then rebuy the next month.. also losing on the difference due to contango.. if you look at the ngit held up nicely.. all of this talk if new lows is great.. i jut keep buying.. natty can run 25 % higher in a week especially a these prices also the fund i s no longer in september .. it has contracts in october which did not get hit as hard as sept.
I've been short the front months for like a year in NG and its money making as easy as taking candy from a little child. As long as there are enough adventurous "traders" buying stuff they don't understand because it's "too cheap" and "has to go up soon" this will remain a gold mine.