I am still buying and building a sizeable position.. no matter what .. nat ga will go up evenually.. yes there are better ways to use my capital.. but I am married to this one..literally.. i can't get rid of it and i keep throwing money at it!
Sounds like you are heading for a very costly DIVORCE. UNG is currently trading at an 11% PREMIUM to the NAV. Good Luck.
yup landis you are right but as soon as natural gas starts moving higher which could be oct. november because markets are forward looking.. then there will be a mad dash to buy the shares.. and so long as they do not issue addit. shares then i think the premium could build even more.. which would be in my favor.. anyway .. this ung is close to a bottom.. same with natty..eventually as with all physical commodities supply side will reduce to boost price.. or at least stabilize.. everyone talks about losing money on the the roll but if you were in futures and rolled on the same days as ung then you would be losing on the roll too.. anyway my idea is that once the mkt moves in the upward direction the shorts will be especially scared and further boost the price.. and if there is little supply and a lot of demand for the shares then the price must jump higher... Funny thing is if the CFTC limits the ung .. then it really only hurts us..the little guys.. but there will be more funds created.. Lastly.. the passive fund etf.. obvioulsy do not artificially move the price higher.. ung continues to buy massive quantities of futures in natty and the price continues to drop..
you know the chance of a trade posted in ADVANCE working out is 1 in 1000 except for my calls which are nearly always correct. this kind of no brainer hubris is rarely rewarded All the post facto trades here win at a 98.7% clip however. oil /ng Spread traders getting porked
Haha. Very funny. If OP likes being long so much, he should get bull spread. I'm looking at V over Z around 185 190 Market still has some downside it seems. Too many UNG hyper bulls who keep saying they will buying it all the way to zero.
lol.. there is no hocus pocus in trading..vodoo..lol.. oting a trade has no bearing on wthere it make money or not... i trade in front of my friends all the time and tell them exactly what i am about to do .. lol.. you show what an inexperienced trader you are by saying that..lol.. I am also short he spy since 1:20 pm this afternoon .. .85 i my price.. i am short the spy.. and guess what overnight things are looking good.. !
long natty gas seems a good idea if you have longer time horizon, but UNG is a bad vehicle. id look for another way.
thanks prof charles but what everyone seems to miss i sthat whether the ung is rolling forward buying or if i did it myself with futures.. i AM STILL GOING TO LOSE ON THE ROLL! AND IF NATTY GOES UP THEN UNG WILL GO UP!!!!!!!! UNG GOING DOWN BECAUSE NATTY GOING DOWN Solution is an ultra mini crude oil and natty, and gas and heating oil contract.. that would be great .. ultra mini futures would attract lots of people to the commodities.
Natural gas will continue to fall because it is being engineered to fall. There are very powerful energy companies that are trying to get natural gas to be used as a bridge fuel instead of coal in the upcoming energy bill. It will get so cheap, that soon there will be headlines calling for natural gas as the key to US energy independence. The funny thing is, natural gas is a byproduct of crude oil. If there is such an abundance of NG this year, there must be so much fucking crude. But, there is an agreement in the G20 that 70-75 oil is a fair price for the world, so that is where it is. The problem is, world power heads are in agreement that global warming will put things in jeapardy. So, of course since ng has a much lower carbon footprint, they will just use the NG, instead of crude. In the early days of this century, they used to just burn NG when drilling for crude, because it was worthless. But they eventually found a way to monetize it. They still burn it off these days, you can sometimes see it on rigs in the ocean, a big flame coming off the top.
well pascal.. i certainly am glad i have been continuing to buy ung.. nice rally today.. this is just the start.. they will stick it to the shorts over the next week in ung!