http://www.unitedstatesnaturalgasfund.com/ung_rolldates.html Roll Dates* September 14, 2009 through September 17, 2009 * Roll Dates are projected and subject to change without notice. Roll Dates are defined as the dates on which the Benchmark Futures Contract are expected to begin changing from the current closest to expire contract month to the next closest to expire contract month. The change occurs over four days.
OK I'll be the one to get flamed for supidity: What's the problem with the next rollover going to be at a buck higher???? is it the fact that maybe the contango will go away and those more distant contracts will then go lower to the 2.60 range where we see the October contract trading now?>>>which would greatly DECREASE the net asset value of the fund? Otherwise, more expensive rollover into more expensive contracts would just decrease the number of contracts the fund must purchase for the same amount of capital??? which is what the CFTC would like to see anyway???? If one holds their UNG shares for two years doesn't it become irrelevant whether there is contango or not?? >>>as long as the fund doesn't liquidate I mean??? If the fund stays in existence for the next five years.......will its share prices go up and down with the price of the natural gas futures contracts? or since the fund can't issue more shares or buy more futures contracts......is it broken??
Seasonal NG tendency is entering a bullish period, COT commercials are relatively long, sentiment extremely bearish, NG prices at historically low prices--I smell a bottom.
Do you want to know why NatGas keeps tanking? LNG is being shipped here and selling way under market. The big ports on the east coast will spill the beans: If u want to do the research. I was wanting to buy NG until I learned what is really going on. NG has been a widow maker with a lot of peeps. Maybe they can throw in a bottle of Maker's for the long's for comfort.....or maybe the need some SoCo. Either way, LNG is selling 30% below US NG prices for about 6 months. LNG is what is driving the price down. Don't do the crude/NG ratio. It will crush you. For the n00b's, LNG = Liquefied Natural Gas. Hope your electric bill go down this year ;-) The world is FULL of NG.....ask T.Boone (NG cars) and ask his Cowboy's to beat Georgia. He spent $250M for Oklahoma State to beat someone!! The Pokes beat Georgia, then the $$ is well spent I guess.......Still needs to beat the Sooners in Norman....which won't happen. So, there ya go. I should'a shorted NG when I knew this info, but I didn't. Happy with my DX short, SI long, LINE long, EMF long, NAT short, EMF long, BRCO long, ERHE long, NDAQ short, K short and Dec 80 SPY puts.
well. i should have talked to a few of my friends before gettinginto this trade.. 3 weeks ago a friend of mine who trades physwical gas said to sell november futures and get out of my long UNG position! I spoke with her today and she still says sell novi natty.. she said the "public" thinks.. how in the hell can companies produce natural gas at these prices and survive? Well guess what! She said they are all hedged to the gills and they will not shut in the wells.. they do not care if cash goes to $ .10 yes 10 cents becasue they are hedged until early to mid 2010! She is looking for a 1.99 print well before a 3.00 print in cash and said an even $ 1.00 print is not entirerly off the table. I am idle on the side lines now but watching Natty when it decides to start moving up I will be aggressive and ready.. my friend said the natty recovery will come in late 2010 into 2011.. and that the industry is trying to get the governemtn to look at natty for fuel in cars and beat out the coal industry.. anyway . i shold have listened last week.