Unemployment Report Will Understate Worsening Jobs Rate

Discussion in 'Economics' started by pspr, Oct 7, 2010.

  1. pspr


  2. the1


    I have a feeling the government's number will paint a much nicer picture. Naturally, it's a load of BS.
  3. Who knows but I won't be suprised if the number is rosier than the ADP report.
  4. JamesL


    It's the last one before the elections - what do you think?
  5. It might make people sick:
  6. S2007S


    Tomorrow is a day for the bulls no matter what the jobs numbers is, clear and simple.

    Markets expect an increase of 65-75k jobs tomorrow morning.

    Now it doesn't matter which way the numbers go tomorrow reason being is that if jobs decline by 10k or even 50k its just more pressure to push quantitative easing 2 into the system a lot quicker. It will be easier for them to acknowledge that jobs are still going bye bye and that they have to do something quick to keep the economy propped up, we might see a decline in stocks but once they start quantitative easing 2 the dollar will fall and equities will rise.

    And if the jobs numbers come in between 50k-100k the bulls will rally the market 2% because jobs are coming back to the economy, so no matter what the circumstance tomorrow the market is going to the bulls.

    Going to be one heck of day tomorrow.
  7. Alcoa posted some very nice numbers. That might have something to do with it too.
    Anyway, interesting stuff in that link from Gallup. I didn't know they did all this work on this. Good to know, and some very nice data.
  8. pspr


    Obama coolaid! The end is near for his supporters. :D
  9. The ADP only includes the private sector, and gov't jobs (measured in tomorrow's NFP report) are one of the only sectors growing.

    Still, when there's a large discrepancy between the expected and actual values of the ADP (like this month), the NFP often prints in the same direction as the ADP. We'll see. But with the hand-waving and "hedonic" adjustments allowed in these reports, they can manipulate the numbers pretty easily.
  10. Hmm, well that could also be a contrarian signal, regardless of tomorrow's result. When too many people think there's a no-brainer can't-go-wrong trade, it usually isn't.

    Also, stocks failed to have a meaningful rally today based on the supposedly "encouraging" Unemployment Claims data. Futures shot up before the open, but the gains vaporated quickly. You know a trend is about to end if a market fails to rally on good news or fall on bad news. We haven't seen this happen consistently yet, but if it does, look out below.
    #10     Oct 7, 2010