Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by wesker, Dec 5, 2009.
The Labor Department itself produces data that's the "real" unemployment number called 'discouraged workers'. I'm no fan of Goverment but it's disingenuous to state the BLS doesn't recognize the gap between official and actual. In fact the where did the wise ass at mint.com get the 17.2 figure? From the Department of Labor!!
Self-employed people are a good buffer to hide the effects of unemployment. Real estate agents, handymen, landscapers, technical workers, tradespeople... all could be working 15hrs a week right now and it wouldn't show up at all... there could be 5 million people right there unaccounted for..
10.5 million - The Number of self-employed workers.
(Source: Upcoming Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007)
What? You didn't like President Obambi patting himself on the back for HIS one data point downward unemployment trend?
I listened to his PA speech yesterday. He sounded like a complete moron on the subject of economics.
He has lost a lot of his "mojo" when giving speeches.
Not sure if he's rattled because the reality of the job and the horrible cards that he has been dealt, but he doesn't seem to have as much spark left.
Slick Willy changed how UI figures are publically reported. 10% is his way. 17.2% is from the old way. To be honest about the numbers, the only method possible is the old way, to remain consistent and reliable over time. Even though the government purports both ways to be equal, those who know both methods know better.
17.2% is the only accurate figure out there. Only those who trust govt rely on the govt's politically-expedient ways and their 10% at this time. Any of those people left?
Keep in mind that neither method includes workers who have given up looking for work, and those who do not qualify for UI benefits.
A realistic guess at this time is 22%. Just a guess.
Yes, very scary for the shorts. The only consolation for them is that the Feds may have to tighten too fast and choke off the recovery.
Jobs report for November registered only an 11,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls, the smallest loss in two years. The unemployment rate dropped to 10 percent from 10.2 percent, the first two-tenths decline in that measure since September 2006 (when it fell to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent).
Yesterday's jobs report is a countertrend blip. 11.5% or higher by sometime 2011. Nobody sees that right? It's coming. 17.2% is what it actually feels like right now for the average joe.
17.2% was unemployed PLUS underemployed, I believe...
The "self-employed" don't unemployment benefits or ever gets counted as unemployed.
The official unemployment numbers is a joke.
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