Unemployment rate drops to 8.8%, Obama guaranteed for 2nd term?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Grandluxe, Apr 1, 2011.

  1. Unemployment rate has been steadily dropping every mth since topping out at 10.1%. Is Obama's going to win the 2nd term easily?
  2. rc8222


    Not a chance!!!! One reason for the lower unemployment rate is that many people who stopped looking for a job during the recession still aren't looking for one. So they're not counted as unemployed.
    If many of them start looking for work again, they will be counted as unemployed. So the unemployment rate could go up, even if the economy adds jobs.
  3. clacy


    Numbers are only that....numbers. Everyone still feels and lives the insecurity of the job market and those that are unemployed, are still unemployed even if they are not counted.

    Also, there is a lot of time left, and many different scenarios can play be played out, both good and bad for Obama. However, in politics it seems there is a lot more downside risk than upside, IMO.

    As a business owner/operator, I have a strong feeling that we'll see another big leg down in stocks and higher unemployment in the coming months anyway.

    I do see inflation creeping up significantly in my business, which will hurt earnings that have stayed strong due to productivity increases. That will abate though.

    I see the housing market actually worsening again locally, after a couple of attempts to pick up steam. I think houses have another 10-20% downside.

    I have a gut feeling (take it for what it's worth obviously) that the market is setting itself up for another big drop after the QE rise that we've seen.

    I think the FED is sort of boxed in. They are starting to see inflation as well as decent growth numbers, which make more stimulus tough. Not to mention that the American public and politicians have no more appetite for more spending. Housing and equities have been propped up as long as they could be, but soon IMO, housing will have to work itself out naturally and the market will pop again giving short term investors and traders a great opportunity to buy again like we had in 2008-9.
  4. Aside from the fact that gov't jobs numbers are garbage that ignore too many things (like people who give up and stop looking for work), this is a horrible issue to campaign on. O-Bomb-Ya! said the rate would never go above 8% once his spendulous was passed.
  5. Hedonically adjusted job numbers? I think you might be barking up the wrong tree here a bit...
  6. Okay, not enough coffee this morning and acronym soup got the best of me. CPI, NFP, BLS, BS. Yes, hedonics are an issue for CPI. Nonetheless, employment numbers have also gone through a litany of adjustments over the years (such as "discouraged workers"), and what we measure now isn't the same as what was measured in prior decades.
  7. True, but it's not like anyone's preventing you from seeing you all the numbers, from U1 to U6? BLS publishes them all... Moreover, you can see all sorts of other household survey details, if you so desire. So I don't really see the issue, tbh.
  8. As the economy continues to improve things will look bleaker for republicans.They win if America loses.Poor fellas.
  9. The issue is that the media often compares employment number now to those in the past and doesn't make those adjustments. We just hear "10% unemployment, the highest since the early 80s" with no qualifications or explanation of changes occurring in the 90s.
  10. America's ONLY chance for survival is if the Tea Party wins and WINS BIG come 2012. Otherwise, we can all bend over and kiss our asses good bye! :mad: :mad:
    #10     Apr 1, 2011